A clipper system is expected to move across the Ohio River Valley overnight tonight, and while most of the activity is expected to stay to our north but we could see a few showers Friday morning. HRRR model below gives an educated guess. Rest of Friday looks dry and cool with highs only in the mid 40s.
Saturday will be dry but cold. High temperatures may not make it past 40°.
Sunday will be the interesting day.
There is still some uncertainty with the specifics on everything, but the general forecast is coming together with a little more confidence.
This timeline from NWS Nashville sums up the current thinking, let’s break it down.
Sunday morning – early afternoon: a relatively low chance of light freezing rain
As the precipitation starts, temps at the surface are expected to be around the freezing mark. About one mile above the surface, temps are expected to be above freezing. This could set us up for some light freezing rain.
*If* and this is a big if, temperatures at the surface are below/at freezing, we could see a glazing of freezing rain during the AM hours. Impacts would be minimal, and no major issues are expected. Some models are skeptical of this, and think temperatures stay above freezing, leaving us with just rain.
Even if there is freezing rain, temperatures are expected to rise above freezing fairly quickly – in fact, our high temperature on Sunday are expected to get up into the low 50s. This would confine any impacts to just Sunday morning.
Any talk of a big ice storm you hear of is expected to stay well to our north. Which is very good news, ice storms are bad news – they can cause major travel issues and can even bring down trees and powerlines, nothing that we are expecting here.
Sunday afternoon thru evening: all rain
With temperatures expected to quickly rise above freezing, any wintry mix would change to all rain thru the evening.
Although it isn’t expected to rain the entire time, a line of heavier rain is expected to move thru at some point Sunday evening, and even a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Rainfall totals likely to end up around 1″.
Sunday night thru Monday: light rain changing to snow
As the majority of the moisture moves out of the area, some cold air will be ushered in which could briefly change the rain to snow.
“Moisture looks scarce and there may only be enough for a light dusting on the northern Plateau” says NWS Nashville – leaving us out of the picture.
Forecasting winter weather, especially in Middle Tennessee is difficult. This is the current thinking but could change. Stay connected for any updates! Details will continue to get finetuned as we get closer to Sunday.
Still watching for another potential weather-maker late next week, but models are all over the place with this.
What is fairly certain is that next week looks cold. After Sunday, we may not get above freezing for much of the week.
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