Scattered Showers & Thunderstorms Into the Evening
Current radar imagery has showers and some non-severe thunderstorms moving across the entire Middle Tennessee area. These storms, for Davidson and Williamson county so far, have been non-severe. The severe weather threat, however, is still not ruled out.
Expect for showers and thunderstorms to continue to move through the area into the evening. We could see a break later tonight, before more showers look to return after midnight.
HRRR Loop Now Through 9 AM Tomorrow
We are still included in the Storm Prediction Center’s “Marginal Risk” category. Within this, we have a 5% probability of seeing damaging winds and a 5% probability of seeing small hail within 25 miles of your location. There is no tornado threat.
Like the past few days, while we could see damaging winds and small hail, the greatest threat is the flash flooding potential. Due to the ample amount of rain we have seen this week, the ground is already fairly wet. This means that any additional rainfall that we see today will not have anywhere to go, which could lead to localized flooding in some areas, especially during times of heavy rainfall.
Generally speaking, we are expecting for this afternoon/evening to be like what we have seen all week. We do have the chance of seeing damaging winds and small hail, but the greatest threat is the potential for localized flooding.
Continue to stick with us on @NashSevereWx for the rest of the evening for the latest on severe storms (if they develop) and when this round of showers and thunderstorms may finally pass.
If you are trying to make a decision whether to go/not go to that event tonight or tomorrow, refer to the list below:
My checklist of things to consider when making a go/nogo decision: pic.twitter.com/UHvcNfiuxT
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) April 21, 2017
Flash Flood Watch Goes Into Effect Tonight Through 4 AM Sunday
A new flash flood watch has been issued for both Davidson and Williamson Counties from 3 AM Saturday through late Saturday night.
Flash flooding is a big concern with any rainfall that we see tomorrow. If you approach a flooded road, turn around don’t drown.
Another Batch of Showers/Thunderstorms for Saturday
Tomorrow looks to be another one of those, maybe some scattered showers in the AM, but the best chance will come in the afternoon to early evening type days.
As depicted by the model below, expect for a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms to make its’ way to our area during the afternoon into the early evening.
NAM3 Loop From 3 AM Saturday to 1 AM Sunday
Like a lot of showers/thunderstorms we have seen recently, any storms we do see should weaken greatly once the sun sets.
We do have the potential to see some severe weather with these storms. The Storm Prediction Center currently has us in the 15% probability of severe weather within 25 miles of your location category.
The main concerns from their side of things appears to be damaging winds and small hail.
However, the overall main concern for tomorrow comes on the rainfall side of things. We have seen a lot of rainfall recently. Any additional moisture we see tomorrow, especially during periods of heavy rainfall, could lead to localized flooding. We are currently included in the Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for this reason.
Takeaways for tomorrow:
- Don’t be surprised if you see a few AM scattered showers
- We are expecting to see showers and possibly severe thunderstorms once again during the afternoon to early evening hours
- While we could see damaging winds and small hail, the greatest threat is heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flash flooding
Sunday Showers, Sunshine By Monday
Showers look to hang around through the day on Sunday. Luckily, no severe weather is expected. If you have any outdoor Sunday plans, you may want to start looking for a rain plan due to 1) the ground will be very wet from the day before and 2) any more rainfall on Sunday will just make the ground even more wet.
GFS Loop 1 AM Sunday Through 7 AM Monday
By Monday, showers should clear out, leaving us with some sunny skies. The beginning of next week looks to remain fairly dry. By the middle of next week, different models begin to show different outcomes. We could see some more showers as early as next Wednesday.
5-Day Allergy Forecast From Pollen.com
Due to showers over the next several days, our pollen levels will decrease just a bit. By next week, with sunny skies returning, our pollen levels will begin to ramp back up. Enjoy the relief today and through the weekend.
Categories: Forecast Blogs