Another Hard Freeze Tonight, But No More Freeze Warnings
Official low overnight is 26°, but we should be closer to 20° in rural/outlying areas.
No more Freeze Watches and Warnings. NWS only warns the first few.
A WIDESRPEAD HARD FREEZE OCCURRED ACROSS THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING...WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING 600 AM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 23 AND 27 DEGREES. AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THIS HARD FREEZE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT OLD HICKORY WILL DISCONTINUE ISSUING FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...AS WELL AS FROST ADVISORIES...UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON RESUMES NEXT SPRING. SOME OF THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES REPORTED THIS MORNING INCLUDE... ASHLAND CITY...26 DEGREES... HENDERSONVILLE...27 DEGREES... FAIRVIEW...23 DEGREES... FRANKLIN...23 DEGREES... ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. A FEW SPOTS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MAY EVEN SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
Another hard freeze Tuesday morning (28°). Many backyards will be colder than that.
We remain in “severe drought.” Of the 5 categories, this is the third one.
This is updated every Thursday. Do not expect the 0.11″ we got Friday night to do much/anything to the overall drought.
We warm up Tuesday afternoon thanks to a south wind. Rain is expected Wednesday afternoon/evening.
The GFS model this morning showed why:
We still think this will come into West Tennessee in the morning hours, swing into Middle Tennessee in the afternoon/evening, then into East Tennessee late Wednesday/overnight into Thursday.
We are not ruling out 0.50″ of rain, but on closer inspection, the Wednesday morning dewpoint should be 26°, rising only to 40° by noon. Much of the rain will be gobbled up aloft by the Dry Air Monster before it will fall to ground.
This morning, the heavier rain was west of us…
…the afternoon run of the GFS pushes the heavier rain a bit closer to us:
— DesiBAE aka Big Horchata (@sarcasticstyle) November 20, 2016
Launched last night, we’ll start to see the benefit of it next year. High-res images every 30 seconds instead of just-OK images every 5 minutes, lightning mapper, and several other awesome things are on the way. It cost something like $11 billion.
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) November 20, 2016
Guessing at Next Weekend & Beyond: Active Weather Pattern Coming?
Uneventful weekend. Upper 30°s in the morning, upper 50°s in the afternoon. We may see a little rain on Sunday. But, yeah, we don’t know.
Even fuzzier is the November 29-30 period. The Euro model, which probably won’t verify, so read further for amusement only, is cooking up a sub 1000 mb low in the ArkLaTex. The afternoon run of the Euro shows the low bombing out, sending the low into Iowa and generating for us a substantial rain event. Draw no conclusions. We are just now getting a first look at the first guess at this storm, but, at least, we may be getting active.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs