Summary…below freezing temps start tonight, lasting through Tuesday…Maybe a wintry mix early Wednesday, probably just a cold rain.
Arctic Air Arrives Tonight
As I write this at 4 PM, the arctic cold front had already crossed the Ohio River and is near Clarksville. The Arctic air should be spilling in to Davidson and Williamson Counties after dark.
As the front arrives, we may see a few inconsequential flurries. No accumulation and no travel worries.
Monday will be deceptively sunny, with the high only 27°. Negative dewpoints indicate the driest air we’ve seen in a very long time.
Wednesday “Snow” Update
This time yesterday, there was a good argument we could see some accumulating snow. Data this afternoon is trending – but not unanimous – towards more of a rain event.
GFS Model: all rain.
The Canadian model has some freezing rain early in the morning, but then it all changes into rain for the afternoon.
The European model also says all rain, although it’s very close: temps around 2000 feet and 5000 feet should be only +1° C — very close call between sleet or even snow. However, surface temps on the European model indicate above-freezing temperatures at the surface.
Regardless of what happens in the morning, all models suggests lingering precipitation in the afternoon will change to rain.
More rain is expected Thursday and Friday, possibly changing over to snow Friday afternoon/evening.