Tonight – The Clouds File Out, Temps Drop
As dry air arrives, so will cold temperatures. We’ll drop into the 40°s not long after dark, and land somewhere around 41° before dawn Sunday morning.
Sunday – Sunny, Cool – Wake Up 41°, High 61°
Even with the sun out, a north wind up to 10 MPH will have it feeling like fall.
Sunday Night & Monday – Clouds Return, Chance of Rain
An upper level disturbance will swing by and spread clouds, maybe a few light showers, Sunday night into Monday.
NWS still forecasts under 0.10″ of rain through Monday night.
Things will get a little interesting mid-week.
By Wednesday night, unseasonably high dewpoints will be pulled into Middle Tennessee by a powerful surface low pressure system approaching the Great Lakes:
As that low moves east, it’ll drag cold front our way. That cold front will set off showers and storms:
The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a large area, shaded in yellow below, for severe weather potential.
The good news is that the system appears to lack sufficient instability to cause real problems. But because wind shear will be very strong, if we get even a little instability, we may see strong or severe thunderstorms. This is a common “high shear/low CAPE” situation, which can produce big severe events, or – more common – just some rain and wind.
Wednesday night’s storm potential will be the main weather story this week.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs