Rain Chances Meh Today, Better Tomorrow, Best Thursday

Current Radar

THIS EVENING – 89° by 7 PM 

Temperatures will still be on the warm side by this evening.

The NAM4 model is expecting the rain associated with that frontal boundary to stay to our north, in Kentucky:

Radar trends late this afternoon back this up. I expect we’ll stay dry through the evening!

Note: the HRRR model, which was a bit over-zealous (AKA wrong) with today’s rain chances, has storms arriving by 10 PM: 

But – if we went by it’s solution for 5 PM today – we would be seeing showers & storms this afternoon. So, it’s worth mentioning. But, radar to our west is dry right now. Again – I expect we will stay rain-free for the rest of the day. 

Lows overnight will drop to the low 70°s under mostly cloudy skies.

WEDNESDAY – More Humid & Better Chance for Storms – Wake Up: 73º, High: 84º

High humidity returns tomorrow as our dew point temperatures get back to the low 70°s. (For comparison: today, they’ll be in the upper 60°s.)

The frontal boundary to our north today will slide south into Tennessee tomorrow, bringing with it a lot of cloud cover and a better shot at rain and storms by the afternoon hours:

Storms will linger through the afternoon and into the evening hours.

Tomorrow’s severe risk is low, like today. But, we’re on the cusp of a Marginal risk (1 on a 0-5 scale):

It’ll be hot tomorrow as well, but not hot enough that the heat index will be of concern. But…still hot.

THURSDAY – Rainy & Stormy Day – Wake Up: 71º, High: 88°

Rain chances look even higher by Thursday, as a shortwave (AKA disturbance, AKA rainmaker) passes over the state:

Right now, the severe threat looks to stay low. But, a few strong storms are always possible.

When it’s not raining Thursday, it will be cloudy and muggy.

Extended: Much Nicer by the Weekend

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