Current Temps and Radar
Tonight – Rain Very Unlikely … Until Midnight
The large area of rain and storms that crossed the Mississippi River this morning ran into insufficient moisture and instability in Middle Tennessee this afternoon. Smote the whole thing.
Another weak disturbance will drive by tonight, passing to our NW. We may see some showers mainly after midnight. (Note, however, the HRRR still thinks we could see a few showers tonight. I’m not a believer in that because of relatively-low surface and 5K ft dewpoints).
Sunday – A Lot Like Saturday – High 87°
Still won’t have enough moisture for much of a chance of rain. Don’t cancel outdoor plans.
Monday – Hey! A Cold Front! Rain/Storms Possible – High 88°
A cold front will shove some showers across Middle Tennessee. It’s a pretty raggedy, disorganized weather system. Putting an ETA on the onset/end of rain is like trying to walk into a garage.
We may see a few storms. The Storm Prediction Center still has us inside a 15% probability of a severe weather event happening within 25 miles of us:
But, NWS-Nashville is “still not impressed with any organized severe potential with the Monday system.” This is because winds at 5,000 feet are expected to only be 30 knots (meh), and CAPE (amount of available thunderstorm energy to make storms) will be around 1,200 j/kg. It’s something to watch, but, well, meh.
NWS forecasts under 0.10″ of rain. There’s hope for Monday night ball games.
Once the cold front comes in, temps will back way off. How about some 70°s and 80°s?
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Categories: Forecast Blogs