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Good Friday Storms: What & When

Current Temps and Radar

Bedtime Update re Friday

Weather models are in general agreement that showers and thunderstorms will spread along a cold front, and arrive sometime between 2 PM and 6 PM.

The main threats, in order, are:

1.  Damaging straight line winds.

2.  Large hail.

3.  Tornado.

A tornado concern will be heightened with any supercells that form out ahead of the main squall line.

In addition, after the cold front passes Friday night, sustained winds in the 30 MPH range…with some gusts up to 50 MPH, will be possible, likely requiring a Wind Advisory.

Expect more updates in the morning here and @NashSevereWx. Get some sleep.

Friday – Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms – Wake Up: 61°, High: 74°

What. The Storm Prediction Center has put us inside its Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms.

Damaging winds and large hail are the main concern. The probability a severe thunderstorm producing straight line winds greater than 55 MPH and/or hail > 1″ within 25 miles of us is 30%.

In addition, there’s a 10% probability that the winds will exceed 70 MPH and/or hail larger than 2″ will fall, hence the “hatched” or shaded “significant severe” area shown here:

Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes are also possible, along with heavy rain between 0.5″ and 1″, which is more than enough to rain out Saturday’s games.

These storms will arrive in the form of a squall line. Ahead of the line, a supercell or two could form and initiate shenanigans. Tornadoes are not the main concern — to be clear this does not currently look like an “outbreak” — however, as the Storm Prediction Center put it: “an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.”

When.  Afternoon and early evening hours.

The NAM 4 KM Model shows thunderstorms developing ahead of the main line of showers and thunderstorms (squall line) at 2 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.39.02

This Model Indicates that the squall line will move overhead around the evening commute.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.41.11

The GFS is in agreement with the NAM 4 KM and shows the most intense rainfall occurring between 1 PM and 7 PM.

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Mozilla Firefox 2015-04-02 09.54.34

If the above timing is right, the line of showers and thunderstorms will be out of out hair and to the southeast of Nashville by midnight.

Saturday – The Sun – Wake Up: 42°, High: 60°

Cooler temps and sunny skies will be in store for us on Saturday!

Overnight lows will be in the upper 30’s.

Extended:

extended

Enjoy Saturday and the nice weather during the day on Easter because showers and thunderstorms return to start the week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

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