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Rain Chances Rest of the Week

August 2014 in Review

For the month, we were 0.9 degrees warmer than normal. We were over 90 for 19 days. We got as high as 97 (August 6) and as low as 59 (August 14).

We got 5.47″ of rain, which is 2.3″ more than normal.

Photos from Yesterday’s Storms

Current Radar

Today Partly Cloudy With A Slight Chance Of Afternoon Thunderstorms – High 90

A front is expected to move through Middle Tennessee this afternoon, bringing us a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. With about 1/3 of the CAPE (storm-making “stuff”) today compared to yesterday, expect these to be mild, garden-variety showers. But, it’s still summer, so we can’t rule out a downpour, lightning, and gusty winds.

The HRRR Model indicates that scattered pop up showers will begin fire up around 1 PM, which is what we’ve seen on radar at 1:35 PM. Most of the activity is happening E of us.

18z HRRR sim rad

The NAM depicts the pop up showers being very minimal, but by 7 PM a line of weak showers is forecast to move through.

0z NAM sim rad

The RAP is leaning more towards the NAM and keeps the pop up showers minimal at best. The front will move through, with slightly drier air filtering in overnight and cutting off our chances for showers.

Thursday Typical Summer Pattern – Wake Up 71, Highs 92

High pressure will raise temps, while a south wind delivers moisture/humidity from the Gulf of Mexico. There’s a slight chance of mostly late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms.

If you aren’t lucky enough to get an isolated shower overhead, it will feel uncomfortably muggy.

Friday – Chance for Thunderstorms – Wake Up 73, High 92

A shortwave (disturbance) is forecast to arrive Friday afternoon, providing a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The NAM’s Simulated Radar is showing rain making its way into Nashville at 1 PM.

18z NAM sim rad fri

By sundown/kickoff, showers and thunderstorms will lose intensity and begin to die off. They should be killed off by halftime, hopefully sooner.

Extended:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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