Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)
Current Radar Loop
Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)
Tonight: Main Threat Damaging Winds; Hail, Tornado Possible
The daylight hours are expected to be dry…and HOT. High is 90, with the heat index (“feels like” temp) hitting 93.
Storms arrive tonight.
The Storm Prediction Center has put Middle Tennessee at a slight risk for severe weather.
The Hazards are as follows…
We can’t pinpoint a time. We think the storms could arrive as early as 7 PM, or as late as after midnight. Short range weather models vary with the timing and track of the strongest storms:
The HRRR delivers the storms after 8 PM:
The RAP delivers the storms after 9 PM:
If we get an “earlier” ETA (as suggested by the Hi-Res NAM) and you’re out at the ball fields tonight, just cancel your game and get home before the storms hit. I think they’ll rain you out. There should be lightning, with strong surface winds blowing the rain sideways. You don’t have time for that.
My gut tells me your 6 PM games are safe, but any 730 PM game may involve late inning weather drama. Review your rain-out extra-inning rules — ask your umpire “when does this game become official?” Strategize accordingly. #FormerUmpire
More Storms Thursday & Friday?
The MCS referred to in the below graphic means “mesoscale convective system.” This is a cluster of thunderstorms, usually carrying damaging winds, and occasionally hail and/or an isolated tornado, with heavy rain and frequent lightning.
The Thursday & Friday storms are forecast to miss us to our SW, but there’s not a lot of confidence those storms won’t wander over here. There is, therefore, mild concern about CMA Fest. If you’re going, bring a rain jacket. These storms LOL at umbrellas.
No warnings will ever be posted to this website. This site supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.
Categories: Forecast Blogs