Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)
Current Radar Loop
Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)
Thursday – Strong to severe storms – High 87
We have another chance for severe weather here in Nashville. Another MCS (Cluster of thunderstorms) is pushing in from the central plains towards Tennessee. The Storm Prediction Center puts Nashville right on the edge of a slight risk for severe weather.
The RAP puts the leading edge of the system just Southwest of Nashville at 3 PM.
According to this model we can expect the cluster of storms to push completely through by 6 PM. It also appears that the system will just clip us.
The High- Res NAM is forecasting the rain to stay a bit further Northeast and it will begin push through Nashville at 5 PM.
According to the HR NAM the showers and thunderstorms should be out of Williamson and Davidson Counties by 11 PM.
The HRRR is forecasting the showers and thunderstorms to stay South of Nashville and and arrive around 5 PM
This model predicts the chance for storms will be over by 9 PM.
We will have a chance for rain all day and then the MCS will push through sometime between 3 PM and 11 PM!
Friday – Mostly cloudy, Thunderstorms – Wake Up 66, High 86
Tomorrow morning will begin with a chance for rain… Another disturbance (according to the NAM) will begin to march through Nashville at 7 AM.
We will continue to have a chance for rain throughout the rest of the day into the overnight hours.
The SPC believes that the severe storms will stay well Southwest of Nashville.
There is still a chance we will see strong thunderstorms from this disturbance.
Saturday – Partly sunny, Thunderstorms – Wake Up 66, High 88
More rain is predicted and the NAM believes it will begin around 10 AM…
… We will have a chance for rain all day and night.
The SPC believes that the severe weather will stay of to our West.
Again… This does not negate our chance to see strong storms or even an isolated severe storm further east than predicted.
I feel we will continue to see flash flood warnings the next few days…. Stay safe and turnaround don’t drown!
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Categories: Forecast Blogs