PM Rain Chances Wed/Thu; Weekend Rain Update

Government Shutdown

Nevertheless, our local National Weather Service office is on the job!

Tonight – Some Clouds & Possibly Fog – High 82

Our rain chances are pretty low. Most of today’s rain fired up in West Tennessee and started drifting our way, but is expected to die around sundown.

Fog may develop once again late tonight.

HRRR model from 3 PM – 8 PM:

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Wednesday – AM Fog & Afternoon Thunderstorms (?) – High 84

7a 65 . 10a 76 . 1p 83 . 4p 84 . 7p 78 . 10p 71

Morning patchy fog is possible.

This morning, our NWS gave us no chance of rain, but this afternoon they’ve mentioned a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.

Most of the rain will keep to our south and west. This is supported by the weather models, for example: the Hi-Res NAM model Wednesday 12 PM – 7 PM:

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GFS model Noon Wednesday is also indicating some sort of shower activity:

Thursday – Slight Chance of Afternoon Rain/Thunderstorms – High 85

7a 65 . 10a 77 . 1p 84 . 4p 85 . 7p 79 . 10p 72

We may see an afternoon shower or storm. The pattern is similar to Wednesday.

Weekend Rain/Storms?

This is a difficult forecast because:

#1. It’s still too far out.

#2. It depends on the timing of a cold front interacting with a tropical system, which is a pain in the butt to forecast.

#3. We aren’t sure about the strength of the front and tropical system.

So, we’ve asked the weather models. The GFS predicts a weak tropical system will develop, and stay well to our south and east. GFS model Saturday 7 PM – Sunday 4 PM:

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Result: not that much rain.

The European model develops a robust cold front, pulling in a lot of tropical moisture, then dumping more than an inch of rain on us Saturday night.

The good news is that the models seem agree this will be a late Saturday/early Sunday rain event. Saturday morning stuff should not be impacted; however, the models have varied, so stay tuned.

Questions? Hit us up on Twitter @NashSevereWx.