It’s Day 2 of the shutdown. I’ve noticed no interruption in the timeliness and quality of the information from our local National Weather Service office in Nashville. They are an awesome, skilled group of men and women, and we are blessed to have them.
Tonight – Overcast, Rain Possible – High 78
There could be a few light rain showers tonight.
HRRR model from Wednesday 5 PM – Thursday 2 AM:
Thursday – Scattered Showers – High 86
7a 67 . 10a 76 . 1p 83 . 4p 85 . 7p 79 . 10p 71
There could be a few more showers in the morning and afternoon. Nothing to really worry about.
Friday – Slight Chance of Thunderstorms – High 87
7a 64 . 10a 75 . 1p 84 . 4p 86 . 7p 80 . 10p 72
Similar to the past few days, with a slightly better chance of a thunderstorm vs Wed/Thu. Slightly warmer, too.
This is still a tough forecast. Here’s why:
There is a tropical system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center thinks there is a 70% chance it will mature over the next 48 hours. Here’s how a slew of models project the center of its path (it’s a big system, so don’t fixate too much on the center):
Here it is now, brewing in the southern Gulf of Mexico:
Everything depends on this tropical system: what’s it going to do, where will it be, how strong will it be, and when will it all happen.
In addition to the tropical system, there’s a cold front is coming in from the NW. It should approach Saturday night, and arrive (best guess) Sunday around noon.
If the tropical system and the front arrive together, it’ll be a larger rain event for us. If not, it won’t rain that much.
The GFS thinks the tropical system won’t team up with the cold front. Result: less rain. Here’s the GFS model Saturday 10 AM – Sunday 1 PM:
The European model (we’re not allowed to show it to you) predicts the cold front and tropical system will arrive more or less at the same time. If this happens, Sunday could be washed out.
Best guess right now: plan for rain Sunday. Expect more than a few puddles.
Questions? Hit us up on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Categories: Forecast Blogs