📅 Friday Rain, Storms. 🥶 Next Week. Blog deets ….

Temps ahead well above normal, but record highs safe.

Colder next week. Technically, still Winter. Spring never arrives on a gentle warm slope.

Scattered showers possible but unlikely Thursday. Think those stay away, to the west.

Rain shows up early Friday and washes most of us out. Timing remains a mess, think off and on showers most of the daylight hours. Downpours, few strong breezes, lightning most likely hazards.

Severe threat is Thursday and west of us, so far we are excluded from a severe storm outlook:

Some severe ingredients will be here for Friday storms.

  • A brief strip of storm fuel (200-400 j/kg for you nerds) may come ahead of the storm.
  • Shear/rotation will be strong.

However, working against storms:

  • The storm fuel isn’t hitting the right spots (surface inversion, elevated CAPE).
  • Storm mode, timing, and displacement from parent low should disrupt severe formation.

We still don’t really know, tho. Convection-allowing-models aren’t yet in range. Until they are (later tonight and tomorrow), forecast accuracy is (as usual at this range) sus.

Does not look alarming, but worth watching.

Middle TN rainfall range 0.5″ to 2″. Higher south, lower north. WPC thinks we’ll get 1″+ Friday into Saturday.

Shortwave Saturday and cold front Sunday supply rain chances but right now each looks light and kinda meh.

Temps below normal for mid-March in both the 6-10 day outlook:

and the 8-14 day outlook:

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