🆕 Forecast Change: Frost Advisory Overnight.

Frost Advisory tonight.

Cover or shelter beloved frost sensitive plants.

  • Advisory is technically for overnight, 1 AM to 9 AM. Coldest temps will last for a few hours around sunrise.
  • We do not think it’ll freeze but it’ll be close.
  • Models came in about three degrees colder overnight. BNA’s low went from 40° to 37°.
  • Your backyard is usually colder than BNA during fall and winter mornings.

Rain increasingly likely late Wednesday into Thursday.

  • GFS, Euro, and National Blend of Models show 0.6″ to 1.2″ rain total.
  • Most of this should fall Thursday.

🤞🏽 Thunderstorms – probably not severe – may accompany this rain. This’ll be a “high shear, low instability” event common here in the fall.

This one’ll probably do what these usually do: we get rain and leaves off the trees, nothing more.

💁🏽‍♂️ Only when we get a surge in instability will it cause severe straight line wind and tornado potential.

  • It’s a potent system in the broad sensed. When a negatively tilted trough pushes a sharp cold front across dewpoints in Middle Tennessee running in the low to mid 60°s, that’s usually bad times.
  • Models think we’ll have plenty of wind shear, which is a key severe storm ingredient.
  • But! Models also think instability – another essential bad storm ingredient – will be insufficient for severe weather.
  • It’s too soon to rule anything in or out. SPC and NWS-Nashville just don’t see enough bad stuff in the models to start raising concerns in the form of outlooks or discussion. If/When they do, we’ll let you know.
  • Anxiety level right now: I’m more worried about the Titans tbh, but ask me again after Sunday.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast.

Live coverage during tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings.

Look good.
Support the mission.

Shop Merch | Nashville Severe Weathe

We are 100% community supported. No ads. No subscription fees. Keep it free for everyone.