Forecast Blogs

Windy, & About Those Rumors of Bad Weather Next Week

Hello, dear reader, Merry Christmas Eve. My father is in the other room, appalled while watching The Office for the first time, comedy is occurring here.

But first.

Did you spend Eighty Thousand Dollars on a Christmas vehicle? Big red bow on it? Got plans for a cheesy reveal featuring your perfect teethed fam? And you hatched and executed said plan without saying anything to your spouse about it? Well if you have that thing parked for the Big Reveal near a roof sheltering children, the wind is coming for you my friend, strong enough to blow four of Santa’s reindeer and the front right side of his sled through its rear window, windblown by an act of justice, comedy, or tragedy, and a moment of introspection surely awaits.

Regular wind gusts to 30 MPH today, overnight, and Christmas Day. “30 to 40 MPH gusts will not be out of the question,” said NWS-Nashville.


I won’t repeat the temps, you see the graphic, it’s warm, gonna be warm.

Too warm.

Alert readers have been hitting us up on Twitter asking whether alarmist clickbaity Facebook pages “are right” that “there are going to be more tornadoes” next week. Irresponsibly specific medium range severe weather forecasts are punchbowl turds. It’s best not to drink from them at all.

Y’all, the Storm Prediction Center (motto We Predict Storms!) has one mission in life for which they are compensated with money and being able to say “I work at the Storm Prediction Center” which obviously is the greatest pickup line ever.

Here’s what they say:

This means there is no way to know if there will be severe weather next week. No way to draw an area that’s not, you know, as big as half the eastern U.S. No way to set probabilities.

But if clickbaiting Facebook alarmists are harshing your Christmas vibe, enjoy the highlighted sections from the SPC technical discussion below!

You don’t need to understand any of that — you have more important things to do like explaining that The Office is satire — you need to see the words “too limited” and “however…less favorable…weak…” and “too much variance at this time to decipher.”

NWS-Nashville writes a similar technical discussion just for Middle Tennessee which is glorious. It’s all, yeah, waves of heavy rain maybe mid-week, but we don’t really know.

The “best” weather models don’t agree with each other or with themselves, this is common, but sometimes intellectually dishonest weather brokers seize upon one run of one model that may be severe and drop it in the punchbowl then lean back and watch the clicks happen then

Does that mean there won’t be severe weather somewhere in the US next week? Of course not!

But let’s not make it more than it is, which right now, is nothing.

Merry Christmas!

Categories: Forecast Blogs