Next Two Precipitation Events This Weekend

Unseasonably Warm Thursday & Friday

High temperatures both days will approach 70º. We will be much closer to our record high (74º, set in 1971) than we will be to the average for this time of year (50º). 2020 is going out with a bang, but then again, who’s surprised?

Thursday and Friday, we will steer clear of any precipitation. Some clouds will move in on Friday, so enjoy the full sunshine today!

First Rain Event: Saturday

We know that much. The big question: when?

The most recent model runs are actually in pretty good agreement in terms of timing.

The GFS shows rain commencing Friday around midnight, and clearing Saturday by sunset.

GFS precipitation, valid 9am Friday through midnight Saturday

The Euro shows about the same timing, but it has rain arriving in a much more uniform band.

Euro precipitation, valid noon Friday through noon Sunday

Both models have dialed back our rain amounts. It’s looking pretty unimpressive–less than half an inch.

The later the front passes through, the greater the chance for a few rumbles of thunder. Not to worry, though–we aren’t looking at a severe event!

Key takeaway: Saturday will be rainy. Don’t plan a picnic or a hike or a walk through the city, unless you would like this to be you:

After this front moves through, our temperatures will drop considerably. We should return to average by Sunday.

Second Rain Event: Sunday Night/Monday Morning

Timing for this event is a little more variable between models.

The GFS has rain moving through overnight Sunday and exiting by early Monday morning.

GFS precipitation, valid noon Sunday through noon Monday

The Euro model has rain arriving a bit later, but still primarily moving through before dawn Monday. We will have a better grasp on timing closer to the event, so stay tuned to @NashSevereWx on Twitter for more updates!

Both models show a few flakes mixed in here or there. Of course, snowflake appearances are completely dependent upon our temperatures. The ground will be significantly warmer than air temperatures (I’m looking at you, 70º on Thursday), so we aren’t expecting accumulation.

An Update on Our Drought Status

We have reached the “abnormally dry” category.

The rain this weekend won’t pull us out of this, but it’s at least a step in the right direction!