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Nice (but Humid) Today; Some Uncertainty Follows through the Weekend

Wednesday

High temperature: 92°.

Dewpoint temperatures: Upper-60s, maybe even 70°. In other words, gross.

Rain: Not expected; most of it should stay to our south and southwest.

Here’s the HRRR model:

The NAM3 model agrees:

I won’t rule out a small shower or two, but overall we can expect a nice day (besides the humidity).

Of course, we will keep you updated if anything shifts or changes.

Rest of the Week Uncertainty

Unfortunately, there’s not much certainty over the next few days. Models want to do their own thing.

Here’s the graphic. I’ll try and provide a little more guidance below:

“As the NW flow continues into Thursday, I think Thursday could provide a better shot at us getting another MCS-type system. Obviously, there isn`t great confidence in this, but I`ll keep a chance PoP in the forecast late Thursday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM and Euro hammer Friday for our next good shot at widespread storms. This is where I will focus our best PoPs in this forecast, though this will still be in NW flow so I won`t go too high just yet. Forecast soundings are interesting for Friday too. 30 kts of shear, with skinny CAPE and PW values of 1.9-2.0 inches could spell very efficient rain rates. We`ll need to watch for at least some localized flooding, if these rains end up developing.” @ NWS-Nashville

Thursday

We could have some rain, maybe even a cluster of storms. Not totally certain.

I noticed the NAM3 and EURO models keep us mostly dry, but the GFS wants rain. We can’t totally count on that, but NWS-Nashville keeps a low PoP (probability of precipitation) for now.

If storms develop, we don’t expect them to be severe.

Friday

Models agree more here. Looks like we have our best shot at getting rain on Friday.

Forecast soundings show the potential for heavy rain, which could lead to some flooding, if the storms develop and conditions hold.

The Weekend

“As I alluded to earlier, the Euro keeps the weekend dry. I think in comparison, the GFS is starting to lean that way, too, so I will as well.” @ NWS-Nashville

So far, it looks like the weekend is shaping up to be drier.

Enjoy today (don’t forget extra hairspray and deodorant), and keep checking back for updates!


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