• Few Very Light, Scattered Christmas Showers
• Thursday Night: Heavy Rain, Even a Few Weak Thunderstorms Possible
• Music City Bowl: Kickoff Rain Possible
• Colts at Titans: Probably Dry & Not Too Cold

Mostly Cloudy, Few Raindrops Christmas Day

A few light, mid-morning Christmas showers are possible.

So says the HRRR model:

NAM3 model agrees:

These won’t be a problem, just a nuisance. You’ll have plenty of time to be outside tomorrow.

Temps hovering around freezing when we wake up, but afternoon high 50°.

Wednesday looks nice.

Rain, Maybe Storms, Thursday – Rain Continuing Into Friday

No real changes since this morning.

ETA: A few light showers are possible as early as Thursday morning. The heavy rain event is expected to begin around/after noon and continue into or through Thursday night.

How Much: About 0.5″ to 1″, most of it falling Thursday night.

Flooding? Nah. Not enough rain, not falling fast enough.

Storms? Maybe a few thunderstorms, thanks to a little surface instability, but upper dynamics will be missing. Our severe concern is somewhere between low and non-existent.

ETD: Best thinking is the rain will be gone just before noon Friday, therefore before kickoff at Nissan Stadium, but this remains a very close call. Your Music City Bowl luggage should include rain gear in case you need to pull it out Friday morning.

Expect low-to-mid 60°s for the Music City Bowl, with temps falling into the 50°s after the game ends.

The Weekend – Colts at Titans Sunday Night

New Euro model runs still predict a dry weekend. The 12z run of the GFS model had it wet, but the latest run (at 18z) follows the Euro: dry. The rain stays to our southeast.

Draw few firm conclusions. The best data suggests a Dry Weekend, but inside the margin of error is a rain event. NWS-Nashville wisely hedges its bet, putting rain chances around 20% to 30%. Model accuracy for X place at Y time at this range is poor. It has changed a few times already. Stay tuned, much can (and will) change.

Temps will be mild this weekend. Lows above freezing. Highs around 50°-ish. Winds north, but light.