Forecast Blogs

Rain Today, Freezing Fog Possible Monday Morning, & the 2018 #Festivus-Themed Year-End Letter

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Off and on rain will continue this morning into early afternoon. HRRR model (below) thinks rain will be gone by 3 PM:

Less than 0.20″ expected. High 47°, but tonight’s winds turn colder, and wind chills will approach freezing.

Freezing Morning Fog Possible Christmas Eve

Early morning patchy fog may freeze. Temps should drop below freezing shortly after 3 AM and stay there until 8 AM or so. If you’re up early Monday morning and see fog on the road, assume a thin layer of ice has formed. Any such hazard will end about an hour or two after sunrise when temps rise above freezing.

Otherwise, sunny and high 50° Christmas Eve.

Cloudy, Light Rain Possible Christmas Day

Models disagree. An area of weak rain will approach, weakening all the way. Euro model thinks we’ll stay dry, but the GFS and NAM models have just a little rain. My bet is maybe a few sprinkles, keep your outdoor plans.

Wednesday then Thursday: Storms?

Most of Wednesday looks great, but things get interesting Wednesday night then Thursday. A classic setup: strong surface low pressure moves from the Rockies into the Midwest, and passes pretty far north of us. This causes unseasonably warm and humid weather in Middle Tennessee. Below, the GFS model shows what happens — a rise in “precipitable water” (bet you can guess what comes from that):

Trailing this warm/humid air is a potent cold front. Cold air, colliding with warm/humid air, late in December =

  • Heavy rain, 1″ to 1.5″ expected. Not quite enough to cause flash flooding concerns.
  • Thunderstorms, maybe gusty winds.
  • Severe? Probably not. Surface based CAPE (convective available potential energy) looks meager on the models. That’s the good news.

Timing is difficult at this range. Currently we think the rain could start as early as Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It’s most likely to be raining by noon Thursday, continuing into Thursday night, and probably lasting into Friday morning before shutting off sometime Friday afternoon. It’s possible, then, it’ll still be raining for the Music City Bowl.

Our Annual Letter!

First, warning to tweed-wearing wordsmiths who read Shakespeare in the original language: you may hate this year’s 2018 Festivus Letter, believing the Festivus theme lacks certain yuletide gravitas.

I like you, English prof, there is place for you in society, you are loved and needed. Someone needs to tell students: “what you just wrote makes no sense, here is your F. But you can do it! I believe in you.” Those of you teaching Deep Things to the masses in middle and high schools are the Protein of Society.

It’s trending on Twitter today, kids: Today is #Festivus, from the old TV show Seinfeld.

If you’re over 30, you probably know about #Festivus. Frank Costanza invented it after raining blows on a man in a department store dispute over the last remaining doll.

Rest easy, theologians, Festivus is not a better way – there is No Substitute for Non-Amazon, Actual Christmas – Festivus is a different way, it’s a joke. But be clear, #Festivus is today, December 23, and it encroaches nothing. Release any clutched pearls, it’s not even Christmas Eve.

Still confused? Watch this:

Festivus features an aluminum pole with a high strength-to-weight ratio (stored in the crawl space), the airing of grievances, and feats of strength. This is how I will review 2018.

Pole

Don’t at-me Grammar Police, this is as close as we got to a pole in 2018:

Poll done January 17, 2018:

Same poll, July 1, 2018:

Give us the heat!

Fork Up or Down in the Dishwasher? We’re a community divided:

Airing of Grievances

We built the case for it.

It had the votes!

We asked quite politely:

It didn’t happen.

And the problem continues:

You Are So Nashville If . . . you just don’t trust the tornado sirens.

It’s been a wet year, easily top 20 on record.

Currently 9.68″ more than normal has fallen, and we’re getting more before 2019 rolls in.

Feats of Strength

Best of Nashville. Yassss! Thanks y’all.

Our Patreon support has kept us going. Thank you for your recurring financial support.

Thanks for reading, and for following.

Make 2019 Tornado Free.

Categories: Forecast Blogs

Published by David