Sunny to Start, Strong to Severe Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible
A typical summertime day is expected with highs in the upper 80s and dew point temps in the low 70s. It’ll be nice and sunny to start, with diurnal heat showers possible later today.
Into this afternoon, we introduce those shower and thunderstorm chances. Latest run of the HRRR, shown below, displays what it thinks will happen today.
HRRR Loop Now Through Midnight
The takeaway from this is that showers will be possible this afternoon, begin to diminish around/after sunset, but we could have a few lingering shower chances through the overnight hours.
With any thunderstorms that could develop this afternoon, comes the chance of some strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. We are included in a Marginal Risk of severe weather today with damaging winds and heavy rainfall being the main concerns.
Showers and any thunderstorms that develop should begin to die-off by the time the sun goes down, so evening plans should be ok.
Independence Day May Have Showers, Fireworks May be Okay
Tomorrow looks to be a bit different than our summertime normal, with shower chances coming possibly in the morning hours. Not expecting for there to be a morning washout, so showers could be possible later in the day as well. Models seem to be leaning towards the morning, but some think we could see some in the afternoon.
The good news in all of this is that models do seem to show a break coming in the evening. Do I trust the models? No. Do I have some hope for fireworks? Definitely. Our local NWS said this about tomorrow evening’s rain chances:
“Still holding out hope that the shortwave and associated precip chances move east and keep the evening timeframe around the Nashville metro area dry for holiday activities”
More Showers on Wednesday, Better Chance on Thursday
GFS Loop 1 AM Wednesday Through 7 PM Friday
Through the remainder of the week, we will continue to have sporadic rain chances. On Wednesday, expecting for some summertime showers and thunderstorms to develop. If you have outdoor plans, beware of the pop-up shower.
By Thursday, we introduce another shortwave that will bring a better chance of showers through Middle Tennessee throughout the day. If you have outdoor plans this day, you may want to have the rain plan in mind.
Friday appears to be our one somewhat “dry” day in the near future. No real indication of showers that day, but it’s summer so that could change by the end of the week.
As for our temps, we will be knocking at the door of 90° to finish the week. Dew point temps will be just a oppressive with values anticipated to be in the low 70s.
Categories: Forecast Blogs