Our Active Weather Pattern Starts Overnight Tonight

Posted on by Caroline MacDonald

 

Flood Advisory Continues For the Stones River

We do still have a flood advisory out for parts of Davidson County near the Stones River.

The river is declining; however, it still remains above the threshold for a flood advisory. If you do come across a flooded road, turn around don’t drown.

Clear Skies for the First Half of the Evening

Have evening plans? As long as they are before midnight tonight, expecting for decently clear skies with clouds increasing through the night. Temps will cool off fairly nicely through the evening, dropping into the low 70s by 9 PM.

After midnight, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase.

Three Rounds of Severe Weather Potential Over the Next Several Days

Just like that, our summer-like weather will turn into a rainy couple of days. We are also keeping an eye on several potential severe weather makers. Our local NWS had this to say in the AM discussion this morning:

“Very active weather pattern in the cards for Middle Tennessee over the next week with three rounds of potentially severe storms to round out the month of April.”

Round 1: Late Tonight Into Early Tomorrow Morning

Our first chance of severe weather will come overnight tonight as a line of heavy showers and potentially severe thunderstorms moves through the area.

Latest run of the HRRR (loop now through 9 AM tomorrow) shows this line pushing towards us late tonight.

Current ETA appears to be in the 1 AM to 5 AM range (this particular model shows in the 1 AM to 2 AM range).

While the line should lose some strength by the time it reaches us, it still could be packing enough punch for us to see some severe thunderstorms embedded in the line.

Damaging winds appears to be the main concern. The overall severe weather concern remains low, but is still not a zero.

Any showers/thunderstorms we do see should move out quickly and by the morning hours tomorrow. Cloudy skies are expected to follow with gradual clearing through the day.

Round 2: Friday Evening to Friday Night

Our next chance of severe weather comes in the late afternoon to evening hours on Friday. The general “window” for this round of severe weather is from 6 PM through 1 AM. We currently are in the “slight risk” category from the Storm Prediction Center, which translates to a 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.

Main concerns for Friday night are damaging winds, small hail, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding.

Round 3: Sunday Into Sunday Night

Our third round of potential severe weather looks to come on Sunday. Since we are still several days away, timing between models are not in unison. Most models do show similar severe weather potential, just at different times on Sunday.

Here is what one model, the GFS, shows for a general progression of the system on Sunday.

GFS Loop 7 AM Sunday Through 11 AM Monday

Looks like it could be a more afternoon to evening type system, but we will update you on timing as we move closer to Sunday.

Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center currently has us in the Day 5 15% severe weather outlook category which translates to there being a 15% chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of your location.

Once again, damaging winds, small hail, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rainfall (which could lead to localized flooding) are the main concerns. I will note, we could see more of a localized flooding event on Sunday, due to there being lots of rainfall on Friday and then we would see more on Sunday.

With all of these potential rounds of severe weather, there are still uncertainties. We will continue to update you as the week progresses on the Friday and Sunday severe weather potential as well as update you today on Twitter @NashSevereWx for tonight’s severe weather potential.

For Saturday and the Rock ‘N’ Roll Run

Saturday is going to be a very hot and humid day. Highs are expected to reach well into the 80s with our dew points temps reaching into the mid 60s. We are starting to get into those dew points where we need to break out this graphic again.

As for shower chances, we do have a decent chance of showers sticking around through the AM showers on Saturday. While the severe weather threat from Friday night will be long gone by Saturday morning, we could still see some remnant showers.

For those looking to start the St. Jude’s Rock ‘N’ Roll Run at 6:15 AM or 6:45 AM, be prepared for some showers. Hopefully, the showers should clear out by the mid morning.

For the remainder of Saturday, with the muggy conditions, do not be surprised if we get an afternoon thunderstorm to develop. If we do see any afternoon showers/thunderstorms, they will develop quickly and then lose strength quickly.

5-Day Pollen.com Forecast