Forecast Blogs

Nice Today. Rain Tomorrow. Talking Snow Chances Monday Night – Tuesday Morning.

Sunday 50° • Mon 33°/51° • Tue 34°/43° • Wed 22°/41° • Thu 22°/48° • Fri 32°/57° • Sat 42°/60°

Standard Time is Over!

A return to Daylight Savings Time all year long would unite America.

Nice Sunday

This satellite image taken at 8:45 AM isn’t showing clouds over Tennessee. That’s the snow on the ground that went south of us last night.

It’ll melt today. Clear and 50°.

Clouds will roll in late tonight. The HRRR model illustrates Monday’s rainmaker approaching from the northwest:

Rain Monday — Snow Possible Monday Night?

All models say it will rain. The only question is when.

If you extrapolate the HRRR model, above, that rain could get here during the morning commute.

The NAM3 model thinks the rain will be here by late morning/lunchtime:

The GFS and Euro models say after lunch. So, there’s not much help on timing. The ETA window is as wide as 7 AM to 4 PM. If I had to bet, I’d bet “before lunch.”

Rainfall totals expected around 0.15″. That’s close to raining out ball fields, and it’ll be close, but I’m optimistic you’ll get some practice in Monday night.

So, about that snow.

The system bringing us rain during the day Monday will be in West VA Monday night. See the big “L” below.

When the “L” is northeast of us like that, we get colder winds because the wind spins counter-clockwise around the “L.” According to the GFS model, above, there may be just enough moisture attached to the “L” that we may see a few snowflakes.

It’s can be difficult to get good snow in these situations. Usually, the moisture/precip escapes before the freezing temps arrive. However, both the GFS and Euro models think at least some flakes will fly overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.  Looks like it won’t be much, though. The ground will be wet and relatively warm from Monday’s high of 51°. Accumulation will be difficult.

The NAM3 model illustrates all the reasons to not party/panic about the snow. This model runs from Monday 7 PM through 10 AM Tuesday:

Notice how little precip there is. Don’t write this off, but after looking at all the data, this gif summed it up well for me:

No Rain, but Frozen Mornings Wednesday & Thursday

Clear, Cold, Canadian air will remind us it’s still technically Winter. NWS says there’s no doubt Freeze Warnings will be needed Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Lows in the low 20°s!

Warmer Weekend

We expect a warmer trend, beginning this weekend and running through March 27:

Rain chances may sneak in Saturday. It is too far away to say any more than that.



Categories: Forecast Blogs