Severe Weather Possible Tuesday
Generally speaking, we could start to see showers as early as sunrise. Models have continued to trend at a morning arrival for the “severe” stuff.
NAM 4 (from 9 PM tonight through 9 PM Tuesday night) thinks tomorrow the heavier rain will pass through in the AM, with some straggling showers through the rest of the day.
Timing has been a bit shaky and the models still don’t quite have a handle on it, but as of right now, the best time frame looks to be in the morning after sunrise but before the lunch hour.
What to Expect:
Right now, we have a Slight Risk (think 2 on a 0-5 scale) Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.
The main story line right now is connected with the timing issue.
When looking at the things needed for severe weather, most of those variables are more present in the afternoon than they would be in the morning. They are still present during the AM, but may not be as organized as they would be in the afternoon.
This means that if the storms move through in the AM, they hopefully would not be as strong as they could’ve been if they moved through in the afternoon. But, even if we do see showers/storms in the AM, we do still have a chance of seeing some strong to severe thunderstorms.
Here is what our local NWS had to say about the whole event in this morning’s discussion:
“In essence, things aren’t matching up as well as they could. This leads me to believe that we`ll be in for more of a marginal severe weather day, where most storms will be only in the strong category, and a few could become severe mainly in the late morning to early afternoon hours. I still believe the main threats are going to be damaging straight line winds and large hail as the forecast soundings still show boundary layer winds veered around to the southwest throughout this event. Not a zero-threat tornado day, but very low.“
The takeaways from this are:
- Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns, BUT a tornado can not be ruled out.
- If the models continue to trend toward a morning arrival, and that does occur, the severe threat will likely be lower. If the severe stuff arrives in the afternoon (not what the models are currently showing) we could see more severe weather.
- The later in the day the storms come, the more likely they are to be strong and severe.
- Nonetheless, we could see strong to severe thunderstorms even in the AM.
Overall, tomorrow’s severe weather set up continues to be an ever changing thing. Bottom line, severe weather is possible. There does appear to be a “better” severe weather set up in the afternoon, but even if the showers/storms come earlier in the day, we could still see some strong to severe thunderstorms.
We will continue to monitor this event through the remainder of today into tomorrow. Be sure to stick with us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for the most up-to-date information.
Cold Front/Some More Rain Wednesday, Sunshine to End the Week
Some more no-worry showers are possible into Wednesday as the expected cold front will move through at some point during the day. Models are doing a terrible job looking at the timing of the cold front, but once it passes through, expect for much cooler temperatures.
Rest of the week looks pretty relaxed with sunny skies and chillier temps, especially on Thursday.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs