Forecast Blogs

3 Chances for Record Highs, Trick or Treat, Next Rain Chance

Three Days of Mid 80°, Three Chances for Record Heat

Today. The record for October 30 is 84°, set in 1950. We’re forecast to hit 85°, but that may not happen as a weak trough moves our way, lowering the humidity and denting our heat-building high pressure dome just enough to maybe keep us below 85°. Still, that hot.

Monday. The October 31 record is also from 1950: 85°. Some high clouds may prevent us from getting there, hence the forecast is 84°.

Tuesday. The best chance for a record to fall. The hottest November 1 on record is 84°, set in 2000. As you would expect, that 84° is also the hottest November temp ever recorded at BNA.

Trick or Treat

No rain. Temps will be falling into the upper 70°s when the doorbells start ringing, 76° by 7 PM, 69 by 10 PM. Winds warm and light, under 5 MPH. And please, no apples. Be cool.

We repeat:

Why? When Will This Stop?

People often ask: what’s causing this record heat? The answer is high pressure and south winds at the surface, with high pressure and warm temperatures aloft.

High pressure is in charge here on the surface:

High pressure aloft remains over just about all of the U.S. Aloft, the low pressure and upper level winds (around 18,000 feet) in the blue are way too far north. They have been stuck there for a while, and they should be there for a while. Hard to get a weather pattern change to fall when those winds are stuck in Canada and in the Pacific NW.

Ensemble models suggest this hot pattern will be a memory in a few weeks. Yeah, weeks.

Next Rain Chance

Clouds will build Wednesday, delivering some rain chances Thursday.

This is a “chance” and is by no means guaranteed, but we feel OK about it. That’s the good news. The bad news is this is not much rain and it will do very little to dent our drought:

These rain chances Thursday are happening because those upper level winds and lower pressure aloft will finally get south from Canada:

The Next Weekend Guess

The pattern shift aloft will take us out of the 80° Thursday through the weekend, but we will still be running warmer than usual. Cooler temps, no rain expected.

Wait for (we think/hope) mid-November for some real fall weather.

Current Radar

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