An Uneventful Forecast
The only chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday, but the system will move pretty far north of us, leaving us only with a little moisture to work with.
We Could Use The Rain
We don’t “need” the rain; those to our SE are the ones who “need” it.
Currently, our rainfall deficit is -1.68″ in October and -3.85″ for the year. That deficit will increase each day this week under our sunny skies.
The Drought Monitor has us in its first drought category: “Abnormally Dry.”
What about that rain chance late Wednesday or Thursday?
This morning’s GFS model runs showed barely more than a trace of rain. This afternoon’s GFS model run predicts a little more than that, thinking most of the rain will fall east of 65. Draw few/no conclusions from this, and if drawing few conclusions from this, forget those.
The NAM illustrates the “more rain” going north of us and the “less rain” coming our way Thursday:
The Euro has barely a trace of rain from this system.
This isn’t going to do much to dent the little drought going on, assuming it even happens. Forecast confidence on Sunday for a Thursday-ish rain event like this is low.
The Next Weekend Guess
Looks dry. Models suggest a weak, moisture-lacking front swinging in.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs