An Uneventful Forecast

The only chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday, but the system will move pretty far north of us, leaving us only with a little moisture to work with.

We Could Use The Rain

We don’t “need” the rain; those to our SE are the ones who “need” it.

Currently, our rainfall deficit is -1.68″ in October and -3.85″ for the year. That deficit will increase each day this week under our sunny skies.

“Abnormally Dry”

The Drought Monitor has us in its first drought category: “Abnormally Dry.”

What about that rain chance late Wednesday or Thursday?

This morning’s GFS model runs showed barely more than a trace of rain. This afternoon’s GFS model run predicts a little more than that, thinking most of the rain will fall east of 65. Draw few/no conclusions from this, and if drawing few conclusions from this, forget those.

The NAM illustrates the “more rain” going north of us and the “less rain” coming our way Thursday:

The Euro has barely a trace of rain from this system.

This isn’t going to do much to dent the little drought going on, assuming it even happens. Forecast confidence on Sunday for a Thursday-ish rain event like this is low.

The Next Weekend Guess

Looks dry. Models suggest a weak, moisture-lacking front swinging in.

Current Radar

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.