A Little More Humidity
About a week ago the dewpoint was in the low 70°s, which is very humid, as in borderline oppressive humidity.
Then we had that cool front arrive Thursday. North winds at the surface scoured away the gross and dropped our dewpoints into the glorious mid 50°s.
Today, the winds are turning south again, so the humidity is going back up.
But, not all the way up to oppressive levels. With temps approaching 90°, this will feel like a proper Labor Day Weekend — hot enough to cook out, swim, whatever, but not too hot.
Rain Chances Remain Very Low Until Thursday
High pressure is in charge, which means dry weather is likely. Possible there may be some showers to our west near the Tennessee River, but we do not expect anything here.
With our temp/dewpoint profiles where they are, it’s silly to completely rule out all rain, but we think those chances are too low to “mention” rain, even though we just did.
Wait. So What Happens Thursday?
“Zonal flow” arrives, which means the upper level winds will be moving more west-to-east. Here is an example.
With this pattern, it’s easier for disturbances/rain to get caught in the flow and carried into Middle Tennessee.
Add slightly higher humidity, and you get only a slight increase in rain chances Thursday through the weekend. I ran the models and it does not look like much. But, remember, this is so far away it’s in voo-doo forecasting land, we really don’t know what will happen. It all depends on who you ask:
The GFS/Euro model predicts a cold front to arrive next weekend. That will slash dewpoints/humidity, then they’ll go back up again after a few days.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs