Tonight: Chance for A Storm, Cooler
It appears rain activity will fizzle in coverage, but not in totality. A few storms could linger into the evening, mainly west of the area. Still, have the rain gear on hand for any plans you have outdoors tonight.
Temperatures will cool through the upper 80s and upper 70s by 9PM.
Saturday: HOT Again, PM Storm Chance – High 94º
Saturday will repeat today, except now the better rain chances shift towards I-65 and east towards the Cumberland Plateau. It won’t be a washout, but if you have sports or other outdoor excursions planned, you’ll be wise to take the umbrella with you.
Temperatures will top out in the middle 90s with heat index readings above 100º. This heat could be dangerous. Remember, the heat index is a measure of what it feels like in the shade. Those in the sun will experience more heat than suggested by the Heat Index. Stay hydrated!
Low to middle 90s for highs, PM storm chances daily, and we’re closely monitoring the tropics for any development that *could* impact our weather later in the week. More on that below…
Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast
Long Term Tropics Update – 99L Discussion
There’s a very unorganized tropical disturbance located in the circle:
It is not named, and therefore is not a “classified” tropical depression, storm, or hurricane. It is simply a small “eddy” (miniature circulation) entering the Bahamas, that, if convection trends up, could intensify.
Here it is on satellite:
It does this “pulsing” type of thing…where it looks really disorganized one moment, then storms fire up and it looks healthy again. This morning, it’s going through one of these cycles.
So if this “99L” is way far away from us, why talk about it? NWS Nashville sees it worthy of discussion:
We are still watching the tropics to see what the area of interest near Cuba will do over the next several days. The Euro keeps the system rather weak and takes it up the west coast of FL and then swings it northeast. The GFS has a rather creative solution keeping the disturbance weak and making initial landfall near the AL/MS coastline before drifting east along the Gulf Coast and strengthening. Either solution would not impact our weather here in Middle TN. The Euro has been more consistent with the track over the last couple of days, but looking at spaghetti plots a couple of models want to bring it into the Gulf Coast. It will be worth keeping an eye on regardless.
Basically, if this develops into something and moves our direction later next week, it would be a rain producer. That’s really all we have to worry about. Otherwise, this system may fizzle and not do anything. In the next couple of days, we’ll know more and will be able to see trends in further dissipation or development.
Here’s a 35-member ensemble forecast track for the center of this thing, which gives this thing two exit routes from the Bahamas…way west towards Texas, or more northerly through the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico:
We’ll continue watching this area of interest to make sure you stay informed on any heavy rain potential during the next work week. Right now, we don’t see any reason to think this system will impact our weather over Labor Day weekend.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs