Forecast Blogs

Rainy Outlook Over the Next Few Days

Current Radar

Tonight: Rain/Thunderstorms Continue

Showers and storms have already developed and will continue through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours. Lots of energy currently in our atmosphere which could help produce a few strong thunderstorms (wind and hail are the main concerns).

Here is the latest thinking of the HRRR, showers sticking around for a bit but exiting after sunset.

As we head into the later evening hours and overnight, showers and storms should begin to dissipate after sunset. Temps will fall steadily through the night, dropping into the mid 70s around midnight. Showers may begin to redevelop after the midnight hour as we head into our rainy day on Thursday.

Thursday: Rainy & Muggy – Wake Up 72° High 81°

NWS Nashville has issued a flash flood watch for our area to begin at 1 AM on Thursday and go through 1 AM on Friday.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary - Google Chrome 2016-07-27 14.50.35

Tomorrow does not look to be the day for being out on lake, or outside in general.

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Google Chrome 2016-07-27 15.02.56

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We will have a whole lot of moisture in our atmosphere tomorrow that could likely be dumped on us throughout the day. Appears to be the day where once showers and thunderstorms start, they will continue through most of the day into the evening/overnight hours.

NAM 4 seems to downplay what we will see tomorrow, having mostly scattered showers through most of the day, with most in the afternoon/evening time frame.

hires_ref_nashville_43.png (1000×750) - Google Chrome 2016-07-27 07.12.40

GFS has us getting a lot of rain in a short 6-hr period Thursday afternoon into the evening:

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Google Chrome 2016-07-27 07.14.22

As you can see there really isn’t a good “you’ll see showers here at this time”. Hopefully later tonight the HRRR may provide more guidance on the when, but most models are showing a lot of scattered showers through a good portion of the day.

Severe weather is not a concern with these thunderstorms that may develop. Could see some damaging wind gusts, but the main concern appears to be heavy rainfall that could lead to some localized flooding. 

Here is more of what the NWS has to say about tomorrow:

“Areal average qpf values for this event through Thursday night will be in the 1 to 3 inch range, but any given thunderstorm could produce that much in a short period of time. So, it is the localized downpours we are most concerned about. If several storms affect a single location, significant flash flooding could occur, and that is the reason for issuance of the watch.”

Remember if you approach a flooded roadway, or one that you aren’t sure if it’s flooded, turn around don’t drown. 

We will be monitoring the rain throughout the day, so stick with us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for the most up to date information.

Friday: Mostly Cloudy, Afternoon Showers Possible – Wake Up 72° High 87°

Rain calms down a bit as we head into Friday. Still could see a few afternoon showers (as per usual for summer). Temps will also warm back up a bit reaching into the mid to upper 80s. Dew points temps will stay muggy and in low to mid 70s through most of the day.

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Weekend Outlook: Afternoons Look Wet, Humid

My Forecast - Google Chrome 2016-07-27 06.55.42

Mornings look to be the best time for any of your outdoor weekend plans. Most afternoons Mother Nature will be fighting with the environment to break through our atmospheric cap, and both days she will more than likely succeed, meaning once we see a few showers, they will quickly grow and multiply.

It is also Tax-Free Weekend for Tennessee so for those doing some shopping, unless you want things soaked, get up a little early and get it done before the afternoon.

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Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast

5 Day Pollen Allergy Forecast for Nashville, TN (37201) _ Pollen.com - Google Chrome 2016-07-27 06.51.06

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Categories: Forecast Blogs