Last Night’s Storms:
We were the recipients of a couple of rounds of severe weather yesterday, which produced wind damage in several areas of both counties and torrential rain. Here’s a time-lapse from Oak Hill of the dinner time round of storms and the great sunset before the overnight round of storms developed.
Today: Partly Cloudy, Chance of Rain in Afternoon/Evening – High 91°
*Update as of 1:45 PM we are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM tonight*
Primary threats include possibility of… scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 MPH, isolated hail events 1″+, a tornado or two.
A new flash flood watch has been issued for Davidson and Williamson Counties until 10 PM tonight.
It is going to feel extremely muggy throughout the day. Max temps should just reach into the 90s, and our dew point temps will be in the very sticky mid 70s.
Current radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms sitting to our Northwest moving down towards our area in a ESE direction. Latest runs of the HRRR shows some of these showers/storms potentially reaching us in the late afternoon/early evening period.
Earlier this morning, those showers and storms had been driving Southeast towards us; latest radar imagery have shown these showers moving a little more Eastward than they originally were (good news for us). Still plenty of time for these showers to move Southward, we will keep an eye on them.
We have been included in an “Enhanced Risk” Outlook by the Storm Prediction Center:
The SPC additionally has us under a:
- 30% Probability of Damaging Wind Gusts within 25 miles
- 5% Probability of Large Hail within 25 miles
- 2% Probability of a Tornado within 25 miles (the tornado threat is there, but does appear to be greater to our Northwest)
Main concerns for us would be damaging winds and flooding if this system rides down the Mississippi River into our area.
If we do receive more rainfall this could become a very dangerous short term flooding event. We have seen easily already seen between 3 to 5 inches of rain in a very short about of time this morning. Any additional rainfall could build up very quickly on roadways that experienced earlier heavy rainfall. If you come across a flooded roadway, do not try to pass through. Turn around, don’t drown.
Here is what we’re watching for later today. ETA is this evening. ^wm pic.twitter.com/Iaa1LxW8su
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) July 7, 2016
Here is what the NWS had to say about this afternoon:
Timing of the storms is still hard to tell because we do not know which direction the storm will develop in. So far, they are moving in a Southeastern direction (towards us). Here is the latest ETA from the NWS:
This will be an ongoing event throughout the day that we will be monitoring very closely. Be sure to keep up to date with us @NashSevereWx on Twitter for the latest. As always, if you do have any damage from this morning, be sure to tweet using #tspotter
Tonight: Passing Clouds, Temps Fall to the Mid 70s
Early evening plans will strongly depend on if we get these showers/storms mentioned above. If the system reaches us, it will likely impact early evening activities. If they do not, then we are expecting cloudy skies through the night.
Friday: Sunny to Start, Rain Late – Wake Up 76° High 95°
Another good summertime start to the day on Friday. Looks to start out predominantly sunny and stay that way through the majority of the day. Temps are expected to reach into the mid 90s with dew point temps reaching the low to mid 70s, aka it’s going to feel awful outside.
By Friday evening into the early Saturday morning time frame, a cold front will be passing across the region. With the cold front, some showers and thunderstorms could form along it and bring more moisture into our area.
NAM 4 is currently showing a late Friday/early Saturday arrival for showers and storms:
Through the weekend, the front that will pass through late on Friday is expected to become somewhat stationary and sit in our area. With this quasi-stationary front, moisture will become and unlimited source for showers and thunderstorms.
Still a little too far out for a good “when” of all of this. Most long terms models are showing scattered showers throughout the entire weekend. For those with weekend plans, know that rain could impact them; nothing is “cancel worthy” at this time thought.
For those with evening plans on Saturday (*cough cough Guns N’ Roses Concert*), I would bring a poncho. It is still too far out to know an exact time of “when” we will get showers, but recent models have been showering scattered showers in the evening time frame. If the weather decides to crap out, we will let you know. For now, get pumped for the weekend.
Another thing to consider into the weekend is the potential for water to build up. With the recent downpours we have experienced, the ground will be all ready very saturated which means any additional rainfall could add up on roadways very quickly.
NWS had this to say about the weekend:
Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs