Tonight: Still a Small Chance of Showers, Partly Cloudy – 9 PM 85°
Showers have begun to develop to our West through the day. None, so far, have reached our area. Thank you cap.
There are a few interesting points about the weather for today as we enter the remainder of the afternoon:
Instability vs. Warm Temps/Dry Air Aloft – While modest instability will exist because of high temperatures and decent moisture content, the atmosphere will have a hard time getting anything going. Why? Dry air combined with warm temperatures, also known as a “cap”.
We expect this “cap” to hold out over our area, preventing much of anything in regards to rain. However, there is a very outside chance, especially as you travel south and west, that a shower or two breaks this cap and you end up getting wet. That’s the nature of summertime.
After the sun sets, that chance of showers dissipates rather quickly.
We’ll cool off nicely into the lower 80s for any evening plans. And we should be dry, which is a bonus.
Sunday: “Cap” Erodes = Better Rain Chance – Wake Up 74° High 94°
The moisture levels won’t be fantastic on Sunday for storm development, but with a front approaching from the north, better forcing will be in place to “break the cap”. This means that storms will have a better chance at breaking through the warm air aloft and maturing.
Keep any eye out for scattered storms, as depicted here by the 4KM NAM:
As the day/night progresses, the front will be approaching from the north and west…which means increasing rain chances. Temperatures on Sunday will be hot again in the middle 90s.
Extended Outlook: Increased Rain/Storm Chances, Cooler!
Monday would be a good bet on thunderstorms. As mentioned by NWS Nashville, a few of these could be severe with high CAPE (storm food) in place. However, low shear should keep storms from rotating, so hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.
Beyond Monday’s storms and frontal passage, temperatures will cool off nicely in conjunction with lower dew points. It’s a much improved forecast from the hot and humid weather we’ve gotten used to.
Allergy Report: 5-Day Pollen.com Forecast
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Categories: Forecast Blogs