Chance of Showers Tonight, Heat Continues Tomorrow

Current Radar

Tonight: Chance of Showers/Storms – 9 PM 84°

Our atmosphere has remained capped off this afternoon, not letting any afternoon pop-up showers occur so far. Chance of showers developing is still there, but looks very unlikely given our current atmosphere.

We currently have a surface boundary sitting to our Northeast that will be making its’ way towards through the remainder of the day. As we head into the overnight hours, we do have a chance of seeing some showers/storms that may develop along that boundary.

NAM 4 (one of the more bold models) still shows that boundary reaching us in the late evening hours.

hires_ref_nashville_25.png (1000×750) - Google Chrome 2016-06-23 07.04.27

Another short term model, HRRR, seems to think most of these showers may go to our East or begin to fizzle out before they reach us, but we could get a few.

Tonight will be a “watch the radar” kind of night. Since these showers will form along the surface boundary, we will be able to monitor them and watch them develop into the overnight hours. Main question is whether or not they will have enough energy to reach our area.

The Storm Prediction Center does have our area under a Marginal Risk Outlook (1 on a 0-5 scale) with a Slight Risk sitting to our North along the Kentucky border. Main concerns with any storms that may reach us are damaging winds and hail.

This appears to be a fairly low-end event. We won’t know any exact ETAs until these showers develop to our northeast if they do at all. Timing for now appears to be the late evening hours around/after midnight.

Friday: Hot, Sunny, Chance of Afternoon Showers – Wake Up 75° High 94°

It’s going to be hot, humid, and sunny once again on Friday.

Afternoon showers will depend greatly on our atmosphere. We will have plenty of potential for some showers and thunderstorms to develop; however, these could remain “capped off” if there is no forcing mechanism to set them into motion.

Extended Outlook: Sunshine + Humid + Possible Afternoon Showers = Summer

My Forecast - Google Chrome 2016-06-23 07.35.33

Summer is in full force by now. Most mornings should start of pretty average with sunny skies with hot/humid temps.

Each day we will have plenty of energy from the sun for some afternoon showers to develop, but each day would also need a forcing mechanism to set any showers/thunderstorms off.

push swimming pool hurry up diving board

A few weak boundaries will be passing through, which could help to start some afternoon showers. Not sold on any particular afternoon, just know the possibility is there.

Allergy Report: 5-Day Forecast

5 Day Pollen Allergy Forecast for Nashville, TN (37201) _ - Google Chrome 2016-06-23 06.57.22

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.