Hot & Humid Sunday, Iffy Rain/Storm Chances, High 90°
Clouds won’t cover us today like they did yesterday. More sunshine will mean more heat.
The dewpoint should settle around the mid 60°s, which means high humidity. Affix hairdos accordingly.
Rain and storm chances are almost random, a typical summertime forecast. We will have:
- Plenty of humidity and enough sunshine to heat the surface to create at least a little lift for rain/storm initiation by mid-afternoon.
- Weak high pressure overhead, fighting off the lift described above.
- Tropical Storm Bonnie, now approaching the South Carolina coast, will deliver more moisture and convergence, but probably only for the plateau…that’s unlikely to reach us. Note we are not saying we will see rain and tropical storm winds; rather, Bonnie’s counterclockwise flow will help steer south winds into Middle Tennessee, bringing us more rain-making ingredients.
- A weak surface trough will approach from the northwest, but like Bonnie, which is really only going to influence areas east of us, this weak surface rough will only really influence counties to our northwest.
The HRRR model (below, it’s running through 8 PM) illustrates the influences of Bonnie on the plateau to our east, and the weakening front that passes to our north and northwest. Not much — and maybe even nothing — for us.
So, let’s just say it’s a small afternoon/early evening rain chance. Some rain/storms could “pulse” and get pretty strong, but no organized, widespread severe weather risk is present. Proceed with any/all outdoor plans, and as usual, watch the weather. It’s summer, the most unpredictable time of the weather year.
Any afternoon showers we see will die off with the sunset.
Memorial Day & Tuesday — Summery (90° & 91°), But Humidity on the Decline
It’s still going to be hot.
But…we will get some north winds, cutting off the supply of the humid air. Dewpoints will drop to the low 60°s Monday, then dip as low as 56° Tuesday.
Rain chances are very low, almost (but not quite) nil.
Humidity Rain/Storm Chances Late Wednesday — End of the Week
Wednesday night, the south winds return the moisture, and therefore our rain chances.
A trough arrives Thursday, bringing our best chance of rain and storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Then things turn “unsettled” for the weekend, meaning, there will be enough storm stuff around to deliver legitimate off and on rain chances.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs