Forecast Blogs

3 Days of Awesome, then Kinda Summery

Current Radar

Sunday – Awesome – High 79°

High pressure and low humidity means the sunshine will be feeling good today.

Monday – Just Like Sunday, Smidge Warmer – Early 54°, High 82°

Tuesday – Heating Up, More Humid – Early 55°, High 86°

Winds will blow from the south, delivering humidity, and with that, clouds. Rain chances creep in late Tuesday night, but we think rain chances won’t arrive until Wednesday.

Rest of the Week: Like Summer

Without a cold front to track or any other obvious rain-making feature seen by the models, the end of the week will be just like summer — hot, humid, pop-up storm potential, with a chance of upper level shortwaves to come flying in to set off rain and thunderstorms. When/Where we will see rain is an impossible question to answer. This is the season your crap apps really are guessing about rain chances. In this pattern, rain is generally more likely late afternoon/early evening than any other time, but with all this humidity and instability and shortwave potential, saying anything certain about rain makes bad forecasts. I suppose this is why the weather industry embraced those unhelpful percentages on your forecast apps. Looks like one of those weeks where East Nashville could a nice watering, Bellevue nothing, Franklin a sprinkle, etc.

Models are usually not that helpful in these setups, but to give you an idea of how much rain — the Euro thinks around 0.5″ total through Sunday morning. The GFS has less than half that much. Which model is right?

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Categories: Forecast Blogs