Shower Chances Remain, Rain Clears by Friday

Current Radar

*Little Weather Nerd Excitement: Today is the first day that the NWS will be transitioning from using ALL CAPS to regular keystrokes in their products. No more yelling at us.

Last night:

National Weather Service Text Product Display - Google Chrome 2016-05-11 08.13.15


National Weather Service Text Product Display - Google Chrome 2016-05-11 08.12.53

As the NWS office in Memphis phrased it last night, “One small step for meteorology, but a giant leap for social media”

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Now for your regularly scheduled blog.

Tonight: Scattered Thunderstorms Remain Possible

Rain chances tonight now seem to be dwindling. We have the proper instability for thunderstorm development; however we lack the proper forcing mechanisms to generate these storms. Still have a slight chance (20%) of rain tonight, but the rain should stay to our north.

Latest runs of the HRRR still show some scattered showers across the area into the evening. If you’d like, know where the umbrella is, but you shouldn’t have to use it.

Temps tonight will stay fairly warm only dipping into the mid 60s. It will be extremely humid during the overnight hours as well.

Thursday: Rain (Storms?) More Likely in Late Afternoon/Evening – Wake Up 66° High 81°

In the morning hours into the early afternoon, rain should stay out of our area and we may get a break in the clouds to see some sunshine. This sunshine tomorrow will be a key factor in what will play out. If we see lots of sunshine earlier on tomorrow, it will only add more fuel to storm development.

Best time frame of these storms is in the late afternoon into the evening hours.

NAM 4 shows storms rolling in during the evening hours:

hires_ref_nashville_30.png (1000×750) - Google Chrome 2016-05-11 16.23.10

As for the severity of these storms, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded us this afternoon to a “slight” risk outlook.

TN_swody2.png (1000×750) - Google Chrome 2016-05-11 15.14.15

We are also included in the 15% severe weather probability outlook:

Storm Prediction Center May 11, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - Google Chrome 2016-05-11 15.16.00

Main concerns remains to be damaging winds and large hail.

The NWS also mentioned flooding could become an issue with those hit hard last night with rainfall. While counties to our northeast did receive more rainfall than we did, parts of our area were under flash flood warnings thus if we get more rainfall like that tomorrow, flash flooding could become an issue. No watch is in place, but it should be noted and watched very carefully heading into tomorrow.

Bottom Line: There are a lot of uncertainties still surrounding this event. We will not know an more exact time frame tomorrow until the storms begin to fire. The key for us will be sunlight as mentioned before. More sunlight will create an even more unstable environment for the storms to potentially thrive in.

Brendan will have more on this event tomorrow morning. We will also be monitoring this tomorrow on Twitter @NashSevereWx very closely. More up to date information can be found there.

Friday: Sunny – Wake Up 54° High 77°

Finally clear from the rain by Friday. Temps will be a little cooler than we’ve had recently, staying in the mid 70s. Another great start to what looks to be a fantastic weekend.

partydownsouth sunglasses cmt party down south shades on

Weekend Outlook: Rain Chances Return Sunday

My Forecast - Google Chrome 2016-05-11 16.07.50

Saturday’s Iroquois Steeplechase


Morning Outlook: For those of you going out as soon as the gates open in the AM, expect for cool temps in the lower 60s. We may have a few stray clouds in the morning to provide some shade; however temps should still warm fairly nicely.

Afternoon Outlook: By the first race at 1 PM, temps should  rise into the 70s. High for the day sits at 70° . Still may see that stray cloud in the afternoon. All in all, should be a wonderful day to be outside.

Allergy Report: Forecast

5 Day Pollen Allergy Forecast for Nashville, TN (37201) _ - Google Chrome 2016-05-11 07.45.02

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.