Current Radar
Tonight: Scattered PM Storms (Severe?), Mainly North – 9PM 72°
*Update as of 5:05 PM: Davidson County has been included in a tornado watch until 11 PM tonight:
Storms capable of producing a tornado are possible in this area. Watching closely. Please stay weather aware. ^wm pic.twitter.com/WwVoFprS3i
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) May 10, 2016
We will continue to monitor the situation through the night. For up to date information, follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx . We will be tweeting this event through the evening. Stay weather aware for the next few hours. For right now, only Davidson County is included in this watch.*
We’ve stayed clear of the rain so far, lots of disturbances to our north however.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh Guidance
This is the latest model of the hi-res model, showing we may get some rain this evening, a change in this morning’s run of this particular model.
Some other models still show the rain going to our north and our area staying dry.
Current radar imagery shows current storms moving in a general NE direction. Most of the storms this afternoon have developed to our North and thus stayed out of our area. Our atmosphere will become increasingly destabilized this evening, showers and storms will continue to develop to our north and west throughout the remainder of the day.
The question remains whether or not these storms will develop south enough to impact our area, in particular those north of 1-40. For this reason, SPC says a higher risk of severe storms exists the further north you go.
Areas north of I-40 have the best chance of seeing some of these storms developing and moving into our area, hence the slight risk. This event still seems to be trending to stay north of us, but this should be monitored in case something does change.
Summary
Scattered showers and t-storms this evening is a possibility; becoming widespread mainly to the north overnight. One or two could develop or stray into our counties, with the threats of large hail and damaging winds.
This seems to be a low end threat and what will likely end up staying north of the area. Stay tuned to @NashSevereWx on Twitter for updates throughout the day.
Wednesday: Storm Chances are Low – Wake Up 65° High 85°
A few leftover storms could be rumbling through the region early in the morning, with a low severe weather threat (hail and gusty winds). It looks like we get a break in the “action” during the day on Wednesday as shortwave ridging takes place over the area. This means that pieces of energy will shift track and stay out of our way, at least for one day.
NWS Nashville still has a chance for a few scattered storms in the forecast, but overall I think we stay dry. Temperatures remain mild, with highs in the mid 80s.
Thursday: PM Storms Likely, Strong/Possibly Severe – Wake Up 66° High 84°
The morning hours on Thursday look relatively tame. No real issues…until the evening.
Storms will be developing to our west, into what will probably be a squall line, Thursday afternoon. This line of strong storms will translate east as we approach sundown. The NAM thinks these storms, some possibly severe, could arrive shortly after dark.
Right now, we are only under a “marginal risk” of severe weather, due to forecast uncertainties regarding atmosphere instability.
However, this line of potential storms is something to keep an eye on as we head into Thursday afternoon. Stick with us here and on Twitter @NashSevereWx for further details.
Extended Outlook:
The forecast looks cooler, but sunnier through the day on Saturday, until rain chances return late Saturday into Sunday.
Saturday’s Iroquois Steeplechase
Hourly Forecast
Partly Cloudy 1PM – 71°
Partly Cloudy 3PM – 72°
Partly Cloudy 5PM – 73°
In short, the weather looks perfect for race day! No rain worries at all during the day on Saturday.
Allergy Report – Pollen.com
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