Tonight: Cloudy, Rain Possible – Temps Stay Warm, Only Fall to Mid-60s
Throughout the day, we’ve seen a few scattered showers developing out of Mississippi. While most of the rain has diminished by the time it would’ve reached us, we still could see some rain this afternoon into the early evening. No rain outs should be expected since showers should be brief (if at all).
HRRR displays these possible, brief showers ending in the late evening hours and us staying dry until early tomorrow morning:
The majority of the heavy rain that has developed across Arkansas today will eventually be making its’ way into our area tomorrow morning. By the time those showers reach us, they should be much weaker.
Tuesday: Maybe Rain, Maybe Storms – Wake Up 65° High 84°
Expect to see some rain in the early AM. These showers should be weak and fairly brief, the remains of the showers/storms to our west today.
The GFS model has these showers approaching in the early morning, into the early AM commute:
Exact timing of the rain potential tomorrow morning is still unknown. Some models show the rain reaching us around the 4-5 AM time frame; while some show the rain, like the GFS, approaching around 7 AM.
Into the afternoon, we may get more rain AND have the possibility of those showers becoming thunderstorms, which may be strong or even severe.
We currently sit in the “slight” (think 2 on a 1-5 scale) risk outlook.
Timing: 4 PM to Midnight .
This wide range comes from the models not agreeing on what will occur tomorrow.
Some models, like the GFS, show us getting rain by the evening, with the “heavier” stuff coming even later in the evening:
And then there are models like the NAM 4 that do not include us in any of the action:
Hazards: If we do see any of the severe thunderstorms, main concerns are damaging winds and hail. There is no concern for tornadoes at this point.
Bottom Line: While our atmosphere will have some of the needed ingredients to produce severe weather, the main area of concern lies to our northwest. This could change by the afternoon if the models change their current stance and line up more.
*Update as of 3:45 PM, models still aren’t agreeing so nothing has changed from our stance this AM*
The Euro (only model that shows this) has those storms moving from the NW into our area. If this occurs, that is when we could see that severe weather. None of the other models show this happening currently.
For right now, this event is potential appears to be low. We aren’t even convinced games will rain out Tuesday night.
We will continue to monitor the situation throughout the rest of today into tomorrow. As always, for more up to date information, be sure to follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx
Wednesday: Rain Still Possible – Wake Up 66° High 85°
We still have those slight rain chances into Wednesday.
Not a whole lot of confidence in the “when” on Wednesday; rain chances sit at 40% through the day and drop to 30% at night.
GFS (a 6 hr model) shows just a little rain in our area pretty consistently throughout the day; with more rain in the afternoon hours:
The Euro model follows the same trend as GFS.
Expect to see rain at some point on Wednesday. While the models may not line up on timing, most are showing us getting wet. Generally speaking, the early AM hours and the mid afternoon seem to be the best time to see these showers.
As for severity, we are not expecting any severe weather with any rain that could develop; only expecting scattered thunderstorms.
Rain chances remain into Thursday, Friday and Saturday look clear of rain, rain chances return into Sunday.
We will have a full forecast for the 75th running of the Iroquois Steeplechase tomorrow morning. The way far out forecast for right now looks like we will steer clear of any rain on Saturday.
Allergy Report: Medium Range by Wednesday
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Categories: Forecast Blogs