Rain, Some Thunderstorms Tonight, Marathon Looks (Maybe/Probably) Wet

Current Radar

Tonight: Rain With Non-Severe Thunderstorms

First of all here’s what I get for not trusting the HRRR.

batman sorry im sorry alfred im so sorry

HRRR was correct in showers moving in during rush hour.


Timing of Departure: A little unclear truthfully. NAM 4 doesnt even show these current showers making there way here for another few hours, thus throwing off the time. If we rely soley on the most recent HRRR run, then showers should be out of our area by mid-evening:

hrrr_ref_nashville_6.png (1024×768) - Google Chrome 2016-04-29 15.45.07

However, I am expecting this rain to continue over a few hours because current radars show rain showers extending  to our West that are still in Jackson,TN. Showers should be gone by overnight, but expecting showers and the possibility of a few non-severe thunderstorms to stick around the a good portion of the evening.

*Updated* Saturday: Rainy – Early 62° High 82°

Most of the models did not expect for the rain to move through Friday night as early as it did, which could through off most of the models for tomorrow morning.

Only one day out and there is still some uncertainty with the timing of rain tomorrow.

Morning Forecast: The morning forecast — oddly enough — is still the most difficult to predict. Some models show a complete wash out, some do not.

The latest runs of the NAM 4 so some scattered showers around the area at race time:

hires_ref_nashville_25.png (1000×750) - Google Chrome 2016-04-29 15.24.38

GFS and Euro still show rain throughout the morning hours:

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Google Chrome 2016-04-29 08.39.09

HRRR is finally coming into range as mentioned below. HRRR seems to be trending toward the idea that the GFS has unfortunately. Make note that this image is at the very end of the current HRRR run so accuracy is limited. This image also is 2 hours before race time begins so if it is correct, if no more showers develop, these could pass through before the beginning of the race:

hrrr_ref_nashville_16.png (1024×768) - Google Chrome 2016-04-29 15.36.57

Editor’s Note: the Euro seems to want to lift most of the rain along the warm front, which should have lifted north into Kentucky in the morning. This kinda matches the idea the NAM4 has, and may be a clue that we’re trending dry. So, I think it’s entirely possible the rain will have moved north by the time the race starts, but that’s not a bet I think you should take right now. Currently, we are outside the range of the HRRR model — which won’t come into range until later this afternoon — and without it, I think “making a call” on weather at race time is premature. One other thing —- the rain does not look like it’ll be a massive monsoon, but it’s not a mist, either.  We will tweeting heavily @NashSevereWx on Twitter through the day to update y’all.

At race time, be prepared for rain. If the NAM 4 plays out, best case scenario, then the rain should hold off until the end of the race. There is still a lot of time left before tomorrow morning, so don’t let  the GFS and Euro *rain* on your parade just yet.

reaction awkward laughing john kate

Afternoon/Evening Forecast: Will be wet.

Most models agree that the afternoon and evening hours will consist of rainfall.

NAM4 shows a line of showers approaching as we enter the afternoon:

hires_ref_nashville_36.png (1000×750) - Google Chrome 2016-04-29 08.33.26

GFS and Euro show a complete washout throughout the day.

The afternoon and evening will have rainfall. NAM4 shows more off and on showers throughout the afternoon whereas the GFS and Euro show rainfall throughout the entire afternoon and evening (I would bet on the off/on variety). If you plan on participating in any of the afternoon or evening activities in Nashville, have the rain gear ready to go, you will need it at some point.

Sunday: More Rain – Early 64° High 80°

Not a whole lot has changed in the past 24 hours with the models for Sunday.

GFS and Euro both still show showers in the afternoon that could interfere with the Kids Rock Nashville:

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Google Chrome 2016-04-29 08.40.01

NAM is still an outlier here, models show some rain on Sunday, but in the afternoon has us clear of any rain:

nam_precip_mslp_se_21.png (1024×768) - Google Chrome 2016-04-29 08.37.49

Heading into Sunday, there is more confidence in rain with the possibility of a few pop-up thunderstorms. Most of the models have been showing rain on Sunday. Plan for rain, even if we get a break or two in the rain, the ground will still be very wet from the previous rain we’ve seen this weekend.

Puddles won’t be this deep.

woman puddle

Extended Outlook: Rain Uncertainty Next Week

My Forecast - Google Chrome 2016-04-29 08.15.11

Allergy Report: Medium To High Sniffles

5 Day Pollen Allergy Forecast for Nashville, TN (37201) _ Pollen.com - Google Chrome 2016-04-29 08.56.51


This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.