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Rain/Storm Potential This Evening, Wet Weekend Ahead

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Tonight: Rain/Storms On Their Way – Temps Only Drop into the Mid 60°s Overnight

We have managed to stay clear of the rain so far. Storms are currently approaching from our southwest.

When They’ll Get Here: Good Question

HRRR displays two lines of showers moving through our area:

The current line of rain moving to our area was initially in two lines as portrayed by the HRRR. Current satellite imagery shows these showers developing into one distinct line. Original thinking was showers/storms approaching around 7 PM; however, since these showers were split earlier, some pop-up showers may develop ahead of the main line. I’d go ahead and have the rain gear ready by 5 PM.

Potential Hazards:

Luckily for us, showers/storms have held off until what looks to be the evening hours. As the evening progresses, our chances of severe weather will dwindle.

We are currently sitting in the “Marginal” (1 on a 0-5 scale) Risk Area by the Storm Prediction Center:

image_full21.gif (960×720) - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 14.52.28

The area of main concern for these storms are those areas sitting to the west of I-65.

Recent updates of the Storm Prediction Center suggests that the main concerns heading into tonight are wind and hail damage:

NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) _ Twitter - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 15.42.46

More specific breakdown of what to expect:

  1. Damaging Winds – Possibility of winds over 58 MPHStorm Prediction Center Apr 27, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 08.35.00
  2. Hail – Large Hail up to the size of a quarterStorm Prediction Center Apr 27, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 08.31.51
  3. Tornado – Can not be ruled out WEST OF I65NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) _ Twitter - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 08.33.48

Bottom Line: The ‘tornado’ aspect of these storms would need A LOT of variables to line up. A tornado or two is possible, but very unlikely. Main concerns are damaging winds and hail. Expect storms almost certainly this evening. 

For up to date information on today’s weather, be sure to follow @NashSevereWx on twitter.

Thursday: Clouds Clearing – Wake Up 64° High 85°

*Update: patchy fog possible in early AM hours. Should clear by mid-morning*

Any rain from today should be gone by the morning commute tomorrow. Clouds will move out slowly through the day. Should see some sunshine by the afternoon heading into the evening.

Friday: Sunny, Clouds Developing in the Afternoon- Wake Up 58° High 84°

We will start off fairly clear on Friday. Clouds may begin to move in through the afternoon due to some uncertainty with rain overnight. Right now, rain chances through the evening look fairly limited.

Weekend Outlook: Looks to be Wet

My Forecast - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 15.57.00

St. Jude Rock N’ Roll Forecast: Pack the Rain Gear

***Update: The NWS included this in the Area Forecast Discussion this afternoon:

National Weather Service Text Product Display - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 16.04.08

Still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to the weather for this event, but growing confidence surrounding the rain potential in the morning.***

The models still are not much help when it comes to forecasting Saturday’s events.

The NWS says it best:

National Weather Service Text Product Display - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 08.04.46

At the beginning of the race, most of the models are showing limited rain showers. We may be able to squeeze in the start of the race before the rain comes.

The GFS model thinks showers will start in the early morning hours:

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 07.57.11

GFS also shows rain continuing through the majority of the day:

WeatherBELL Models _ Premium Weather Maps - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 07.58.26

And then there is the NAM (be advised, it is near the end of the 06Z run, so accuracy is limited) that shows no rain at all:

nam_precip_mslp_se_28.png (1024×768) - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 08.10.01

Bottom Line: I would have the rain gear ready just in case. Most of the models have shown fairly continuously through this week that there will be rain on Saturday. Timing of when it will rain is the current forecast quandary. I think we may be able to squeeze in the beginning of the race BEFORE the rain comes, but as the morning goes on, our rain chances will more than likely increase into the afternoon.

Allergy Report: Not Completely Sniffle Free

Sniffles won’t be completely gone, but we will be catching a break from the high allergy forecast over the next few days.

5 Day Pollen Allergy Forecast for Nashville, TN (37201) _ Pollen.com - Google Chrome 2016-04-27 07.44.26

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Categories: Forecast Blogs