Tonight: A Few More Clouds – 10 PM 64°
Temperatures will moderate nicely for any evening plans. Mid 60s can be expected by 10PM. Clouds will begin to roll in ahead of the next weather system.
Sunday: Rain/Storms At Some Point, Warm Temperatures – Wake Up 53° High 77°
Did the Easter Bunny leave treats outside this year? You better get them before the rain does! But don’t run too fast.
Caveat: Models know it’s going to rain at some point and are beginning to narrow in on a “main time frame”. Kind of.
The NAM model says a few showers could be around as early 10AM, but the GFS and European models stay dry until late afternoon. Morning Easter plans aren’t in definite peril, but a few showers cannot be ruled out through the morning. We want to see what the high resolution/short-term models say late tonight before making a true call on tomorrow morning.
NAM at 10AM Sunday
The afternoon storms present a marginal (“1” on a scale of 0 to 5) risk of severe weather. The biggest question mark is: will we get an unstable atmosphere by the afternoon? Recall, this was what happened last Thursday — not enough CAPE (storm food) — so it was all just rain. That may happen again tomorrow. Models are struggling to agree.
David thinks this is a low-end threat that will need to be closely watched.
GFS at 7PM Sunday
NAM at 11PM Sunday
The SPC has placed us in a “Marginal risk” (“1” on a scale of 0 to 5). This has our attention, but it is on the low-end of the scale.
We still aren’t 100% sure about the severity of storms Sunday, but the possibility is there for isolated damaging winds and large hail. Timing for the strongest storms will be 3PM -8PM.
After the sun sets, the severe threat wanes dramatically. Stay tuned right here and to @NashSevereWx on Twitter for timely updates!
Monday: Drying Out, Cooler Than Sunday – Wake Up 43° High 64°
Any left-over morning showers will clear out by rush hour Monday morning.
It will be a little cooler than Sunday, but hey—dry weather is nice weather!
Temperatures will meander into the mid-60s by the afternoon with a handful of clouds around.
Nice weather prevails through the extended period, until Wednesday and Thursday.
We may see another round of rain — pretty heavy rain — and storms at the end of the work week.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs