After a few early afternoon hours of sleet and snow, the rain left.
Now the ice is trying to come back for a few hours tonight.
Just issued by NWS, statement — "wintry mix will continue this evening north of I-40." pic.twitter.com/HA73WEgJiX
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) February 15, 2016
The freezing line has bucked the trend in the model data and ignored the comfort we got from tonight’s weather balloon (which looked pretty warm). It’s coming south a bit.
Still, models insist that the freezing line that may be sinking closer to I-40 will only do so for a short time, and the above-freezing temps will get shoved back to the TN/KY border by 10 PM to midnight. The HRRR agrees:
Rain should linger overnight and last through the Monday morning commute.
Rainy Monday – Early 35°, High 44°
All models, including the NAM4 model, below, thinks rain will linger into the afternoon and through the early evening. By 6 PM:
The GFS and Euro models, and our NWS, agree — expect a lot of rain for most of the day. Well over an inch of rain is expected, and maybe even 1.5″ or more. Right now, flooding is not an immediate concern, although flooding may become a problem in the usual spots.
The rain should end Monday night.
Less Rain Tuesday – Early 34°, High 50°
Another shortwave will deliver a chance of rain; however, not all the models agree with this. Expect clouds and much less rain than Monday.
Rest of the Week — Drying Out & Warming Up
We don’t see any shenanigans in the forecast for the rest of the week other than a possibility of rain next weekend.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs