Summary…Temps…42° Sunday…below freezing and very dry Monday…Snow…2 small flurry chances Sunday…better wintry mix/snow/rain chances Wednesday, but models vary wildly, forecast confidence low.
Cold Days Ahead
30°s overnight, high Sunday 42°. With clouds, no snow, and temps under 40°, there’s a Blerg Alert.
Martin Luther King Jr. Day will be very cold, terrible news for those planning to be outside. It’ll be as cold as 16° early Monday morning, with a high of only 28°.
It’ll also be the driest day of the season. Dewpoints will be -2° or -3°. Those with skin sensitive to dry weather will feel that.
Early Sunday Morning — chance very low, only one outlier model thinks we might see flurries.
Above is the only model showing snow. HRRR trends against it, and the Euro/GFS/Canadian models say the moisture will pass to our south and not extend north. Meh.
Sunday Night Flurries – flake potential: low.
This snow will descend southeast and across the Ohio River, but the models all agree it will be losing its snowability upon arrival. Most models show no Sunday night snow in Middle Tennessee. The NAM4 (below) barely has anything.
Wednesday – We’re Interested, But Forecast Confidence is Low
New afternoon weather model data has arrived. Wednesday looks even fuzzier now than it did this morning.
GFS: The new (12z) data from the GFS model is out — it shows precip going from freezing rain early Wednesday morning, then changing over to snow, then by the afternoon: rain. Below is the GFS model during the morning “snow” window.
Euro: Unlike the morning run of the Euro (which agreed with what you just read), the afternoon run passes all the precip north of us. It misses it, and snows on the plateau.
Canadian: The Canadian model remains the “warmer” of the two. It delivers the precip, but aside from a brief period of wintry mix, thinks most of Wednesday is a cold rain:
NWS-Nashville points out that areas north have a better chance of snow that those south. Their “best guess at this time is for a period of snow, developing by daybreak Wednesday, then changing over to mainly rain by Wednesday afternoon. Right now this looks like a possible advisory level event, around 1 inch, maybe 2. Again, confidence is quite low at this time. The system could come in later with warmer temps, and less accumulation potential.”
So, will it snow Wednesday? I think there’s some hope here, but this is the best answer to that question:
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Categories: Forecast Blogs