As I write this, the heavy rain is f-i-n-a-l-l-y arriving. I doubt we’ll hear any thunder, but don’t be surprised/concerned if you do.
By the way, this was me this morning, unable to control my feels about the models:
I know, you’re not reading this for rain info.
Just before 5 PM, the low was passing over us, on its way NE.
As this system passes NE of us, the winds will shift from the north, and temps will plummet to/below freezing after midnight.
The precip on the back edge of the system may change to snow.
Here’s what the models say:
Snow arrives briefly along and N of I-40 at 3 AM:
Here it is in motion:
As soon as it’s here, it’s gone.
The NAM4 model, shown below at midnight, lifts the snow rapidly NE.
Both the HRRR and NAM4 have it snowing here for less than an hour. And, it’s very, very little.
I think there’s a chance it will stay mostly N of I-40. If you believe these models (which I’m not in the mood to do), you might reasonably conclude we’ll see nothing at all.
Official timing is midnight to 3 AM.
NWS-Nashville puts the ETA along I-65 of 1 AM, which is what the NAM4 model thinks.
Accumulations? Between “up to 1/10 of an inch” and a dusting:
I suppose a “dusting” is less than 1/10″.
They should call this computer . . .
. . . THE BLIZZARD.
The ground is likely too warm to accept an accumulating snowfall, so when you wake up tomorrow and look outside, you probably won’t see anything good.
However, elevated surfaces, especially bridges and overpasses, may become slippery/hazardous overnight and early Sunday morning. We’ll be below freezing between midnight and 3 AM, maybe before at higher elevations (Joelton, Fairview). That section of 840 near Fairview is becoming notorious for freezing first.
We’ll be tweeting tonight @NashSevereWx.
Wind Chills Sunday!
With winds in the low-teens and temps not expected to top 30° during the day, the wind chill is going to bite.
At noon, a 30° temp and a 12 MPH wind = wind chill of 20.3°.
Next Week: Hey Look, Winter!
That Tuesday night “snow” event looks a meager as this weekend’s. More on that tomorrow and Monday.
Late in the week, upper level waves may make some rain or snow, but with no model consensus, there isn’t much of a point in talking about it.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs