Dec. 2015 on pace to be the 2nd warmest on record at Nashville. That avg. temp will only climb next week, too. pic.twitter.com/3wH7z7qfAO
— NWS Nashville (@NWSNashville) December 20, 2015
Today – Sunny, The Clouds – High 56°
Well, we’ve just had our last cold morning for a while.
If you need to do something outside this week, today’s your day.
Gathering clouds this afternoon and tonight signal rain tomorrow . . . and just about every day this week.
Monday – Rain Likely – Early 46° High 60°
Rain should arrive in the wee hours of Monday morning.
Even though the GFS model holds the rain off until mid-morning, the NAM4 does not, and it’s the model our NWS is going with:
Rain is likely all day. Should be light, and pretty steady. Totals are about 0.25″ through dark, continuing Monday night, piling up another 0.33″ by sunrise Tuesday.
Tuesday – More Rain – Early 54° High 64″
Most of this should fall in the first half of the day.
Wednesday – Rain…and Thunderstorms? Yeah, Maybe Thunderstorms. – Early 58° High 69°
Dewpoints will climb to 60°. This represents arrival of impressive surface moisture that may fuel thunderstorms, maybe as early as very late Tuesday night.
Our severe weather chances appear low. The reason: the expected lack “surface based CAPE.” Basically, to get severe weather, we need plenty of moist, unstable air to stream in from the Gulf of Mexico — which may be blocked by thunderstorms to our south.
The brand new run of the GFS model (12z) thinks there will be very little surface based CAPE, coupled with strong shear which might support a chance of strong storms. The Euro model also delivers CAPE, but the whole presentation remains unclear.
Still, we are pretty far away from Wednesday in weather terms, and a lot can (and probably will) change.
What About Christmas?
Rain and storms remain possible during the day on Christmas Eve, although model consensus is lacking. Looks like we may stay dry Thursday night into Christmas morning, with the potential for rain and thunderstorms to return later Christmas Day.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs