It’s Beginning to Look at Lot Like Spring

Current Radar 

Today – Sunny – High 51°

Sunday – Clear…then Clouds Arrive Late – Early 31° High 57°

South winds will really start to pick up after noon, transporting warmer and wetter air. That’ll set us up for next week.

Wet & Warm Christmas Week Ahead

Check out the GFS model at noon every day this week:

That’s a wet week, with early temps in the low 50°s, highs mid 60°s. We are not expecting a lot of rain, less than 2″ total. The QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) from the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA) has an amusing tiny little rain dome, a little dot right over us, where we get 1.25″ to 1.5″ and everyone surrounding us gets 0.25″ more:

Thunderstorms might accompany the rain. Considering it’s December and dew points will climb to 60° by Wednesday, it’s fair to ask if there will be severe weather. We should have instability, and even some CAPE — the storm-making ingredient often missing this fall — but timing differences in the models and several other meaningful uncertainties are leaving us unconcerned, at least for now.

What About Christmas?

A break in the rain is possible Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. However, the European model delivers a little bit of rain during the afternoon on Christmas Day. The GFS was keeping us dry, but the latest run lifts that rain into Tennessee and delivers more than 2 inches on Christmas night — an amount that’s hard to believe. Remember we remain, in weather terms, pretty far away from Christmas. The models don’t have good reliability or accuracy this far away.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.