Forecast Blogs

70°s, Wind Advisory, Heavy Rain Today

Current Radar 

Sunday – High Temps, then High Winds, then Heavy Rain – High 74°

High Temps – the forecast high is 74°.  The record is 75°, set in 1927.

Wind Advisory – 6 PM to 6 AM

High profile vehicles (big trucks) may be blown around. South winds create particular concern for those on I-40, SR 840, and other east-west roads.

Heavy Rain – expected to start around midnight, probably after midnight. Here’s the HRRR model:

Despite strong shear, we aren’t expecting any severe weather. There’s no CAPE, and lapse rates at the mid levels are non-existent. But with all that wind swirling around aloft, we may see another strong wind gust or two overnight. Most of you will sleep through it.

At this rate, the rain should linger into the Monday morning commute, but the heaviest rain will fall before dawn. Just under 1″ expected.

Monday – Still A Bit Windy; Not That Much Cooler – Early 54°, High 62°

Yeah, it’ll be cooler, but “cooler than near record heat” really isn’t December.

Winds will gradually calm down

through the day after the rain ends in the morning.

BTW, the NAM4 model advertises a little more rain around dark Monday night …

… yet the GFS and Euro models do not, and it’s not in the NWS forecast. I doubt it’ll rain.

December Returns Thursday

After a few uneventful days, a weak system will pass south of us Wednesday night, maybe bringing a little light rain. It will signal the return to normal temps, as colder air filters in behind it Thursday and beyond.

We may even get below freezing Saturday morning.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Categories: Forecast Blogs