Saturday – Record High Expected (73°)
The record high for December 12 is 70°, set in 1873. We think that record is going down today.
Record heat isn’t confined to us. Record high temps are forecast in the circled cities:
Warm, moist air is streaming in from the south underneath a stubborn deck of clouds. Humidity will remain unseasonably high.
No rain is expected.
Sunday – Another Record High? Then Evening Rain, Maybe a Storm – Early 59°, High 75°
The weather pattern Sunday will be the same as Saturday.
In fact, it should be even warmer Sunday. 75° would tie the record set in 1927. More records are set to fall along and west of the Mississippi River:
Despite worrying weather models early this week, we remain comfortable the squall line coming in from the west Sunday night will be weakening and of little threat.
Although we may see a few light showers after dark, the main rain (remainder of the weakening line) should arrive just before midnight. At least that’s what the NAM4 thinks:
The Euro and GFS models think it’ll show up just after midnight.
Although there will be plenty of shear, the Euro, GFS, and NAM4 models all agree there will be no convective available potential energy (CAPE). Without CAPE, it’s just not possible to get anything severe.
The Storm Prediction Center has excluded us from all severe weather risks. We may see some gusty winds and a few stronger storms. We’ll be watching and tweeting them Sunday night, as usual.
Rainfall will be plenty, but no flooding concerns. In fact, the forward speed of the line will limit rain totals, only 0.75° is expected. It’ll probably end sometime in the morning, hopefully — if we are lucky — before the AM commute.
So, After the Cold Front, It’ll Be Decembery, Right?
It’s going to take a second cold front, arriving Wednesday night, to bring the temperatures back down. High Thursday 51°, Friday 48°.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs