Forecast Blogs

Little Rain Tomorrow; Sunday Update

Current Radar 

Warmer Today, High 61°

Lingering fog will mix out by mid-morning. South winds will steadily blow in warmer air, rapidly warming us beyond 60°

Little Rain Tomorrow? 43° Early, High 60°

A shortwave should show up, with broken/isolated showers.

Not really sure about the timing, but am betting on the morning. Not much rain, not a washout.

Warming Up Through the Week

Add to that a slight chance of showers, which is hard to avoid when you’re piling up December temps approaching 70°.

Stormy Sunday?

Think of this like this — if you’re going to put on a play, you need a script, a set, direction, actors, lighting, etc. You need the “stuff” that makes a play, and you need assurance the stuff to show up on time and work together, and you hope nothing happens during the performance to ruin it all. Same with storms. You need stuff like instability, surface low pressure in just the right spot, the proper upper level dynamics, etc., and you need all that stuff to show up at just the right time. Unlike a play, we can’t have certainty about what will happen in the future.

In yesterday’s weather model runs, but the GFS and Euro had all the right stuff at all the right time — ETA Sunday night, and it looked like a concerning severe weather set up. My weather nerd friends and I were all:

However, like the the model runs the day before yesterday, and the early runs today, many of the severe weather actors are in the wrong spot to make too much bad weather — there still may be a play, but it’d be a rainy mess and not much else.

We just don’t know what will happen.

Stated another way: while there is certainly potential for heavy rain, and maybe bad storms, we just aren’t getting the assurances we need to make an intellectually honest forecast about it. But, we’re definitely interested. Privately, my Concern Alarm on a scale of 0 (lol wut) to 10 (panic), is maybe a 1.

This morning the Storm Prediction Center wrote “[a] potential for severe storms remains too uncertain [Sunday] to include any severe possibilities.”

We continue to watch the models. Stay tuned.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Categories: Forecast Blogs