Wednesday Wee Hour Wee Rain – 44° Early, High 60°
A little shortwave arrives while we sleep. Here it is at 3 AM:
It won’t be much of a rain producer. Barely even a sprinkler, probably nothing.
Timing may be off. Don’t be surprised if you see a little sprinkle on the windshield in the morning. No big deal. I can’t believe I’ve written this much about it.
We’ll go back to being dry in the afternoon.
Those rain chances Friday and Saturday are a response to a weak short wave that may kick off a few showers Friday and Saturday.
Current model runs like the light rain chances better Saturday morning than they do Saturday night. Timing on this is a mess due to inconsistency in the weather models, but all the models suggest that if we get any rain, it’ll be pretty light.
70° in December?
Not much has changed since this morning’s update. The models continue to pain an inconsistent picture. The 12z model summary I tweeted this afternoon is below.
Weather models continue to paint different solutions re rain and possible severe weather Sunday. Uncertainty remains pic.twitter.com/IaNtrDxB7V
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) December 8, 2015
The 18z run (often teased because it often sucks) of the GFS, for what little it’s worth, has the surface low pressure center closer to us than its earlier (12z) run.
Remember, we don’t want that surface low passing too close to us. But, again, that’s just the 18z run. My Concern Alarm remains a 1 on a scale of 0 (yawn) to 10 (PANIC!!!). These models solutions are not unusual this far away, and they often end up producing no severe weather for us. But still, we have to watch it.
Stay tuned, Sunday outdoorspeoplemenwomen.
LET’S SPECULATE ABOUT CHRISTMAS!
Wagering on a Green Christmas here is always wise. As the Great Meteorologist Amy Grant said decades ago: there’s more snow up in Colorado than my roof will ever see.
There was a time I loved you, Amy Grant, and I would have given you the snowy Christmas you wanted. I’m glad you’ve reconciled yourself to the truth of the matter.
It’s hard to get snow here during normal temps on Christmas; this year we expect temps well above normal.
Stay tuned about Sunday, though.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs