Rain Tonight? Meh, Probably Not

Current Radar 

Tonight…Light Rain?

Probably not. A weak rain blob will pass north of us tonight/overnight. The HRRR model thinks the southern edge of it might reach into Nashville, but that seems pretty unlikely.


The Work Week: Mild

Note how the highs climb into the 60°s near the end of the week.

That rain chance Wednesday is pretty low, and we really don’t know much about the Thursday night system – it remains pretty speculative.

We’re still watching the models regarding the next storm system next weekend. Although the models are starting to paint a clearer picture, they are not consistent. Consistent model runs build forecast confidence. We aren’t there yet.

The intensity, timing, and location changes from run to run, so draw no conclusions, but here’s the general setup.

We may be able to squeeze a few thunderstorms out of this, but not much else.

The Euro model (we have it but we aren’t allowed to post it) is stormier for us. It develops a secondary low passing to our NW in Kentucky, and lot of rain. It also has up to 1,000 j/kg of CAPE, which could make things interesting storm-wise.

UPDATE FROM THIS MORNING: The 12z run of the GFS model is out, and it’s still looking stormy, but on Monday of next week (a looong time away):

This morning the Storm Prediction Center, commenting on severe potential from the southern plains to the low-mid Mississippi Valley to western Tennessee Valleys: “[i]f models continue to trend to a more unified solution, a severe risk area may be introduced on the next update.” The next update is tomorrow.

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